Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

We're through to the quarters, and we'll have at least two good ones: Federer is, as hoped, facing Juan Martin del Potro. Both are coming in to the match in top form. As is his wont, delPo has been improving with each round as that massive forehand finds its range. Federer is in full flight. He easily stopped Aussie teen Bernard Tomic to put THE END on the Story of the Tournament So Far.
In the other bottom halfer, Rafa faces #7 Thomas Berdych. Berdych ended his last match with a little crybaby episode against Nicolas Almagro for getting pegged at the net. He will be booed, and Rafa will be teed up to defend the Spanish honour. Nevertheless, Berdych has been playing well. He has the game, in theory, to trouble Rafa. I don't want to get my hopes up, because Berdych is a disapointer, but this COULD be a great match.

In the top half we have Djokovic as expected against David Ferrer. And Ferrer just keeps winning matches with no one talking about him. Ferrer won't beat Djokovic. The match will probably be boring, defensive vanilla tennis. But Ferrer will make Djokovic work. Like Limpy Lleyton Hewitt just did in the last round. So when Nole makes the semis, against Murray, he is going to be tired. Terrible game plan for Nole against Hewitt, playing pure defense against the guy who wrote the book on grind tennis. That was some excrutiatingly boring tennis and it
kept Djokovic on a blistering hot court for 3 hours.

Which brings us to the last match. In probably the upset of the tournament, #24 Kei Nishikori has just taken out dark horse contender #6 Jo Wilfred Tsonga in a 5-set barnburner of a match. Kei is one of the up and coming youngsters. While Raonic and Tomic had the Buzz coming in, Kei has been the most successful. Is he still being coached by Brad Gilbert? Murray has had an absolute walk through his draw, so he should get through Kei easily and in great fitness to take on Nole.

I think Fed is likeliest to be knocked off, then Rafa. I should probably give Ferrer more credit, but I just don't see him taking Nole out, I would even pick Kei over Murray first. Anyways, its almost a certainty that we'll have a Murray-Nole semi.

Two things I'd say about this tourney see far: we're seeing for the first time, a really consistent group join the Big Four: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro, Berdych. We can expect to see this group in Slam quarters from here on out, I think, and I wouldn't be shocked if Monfils joins that group.

Secondly, we are seeing the proof that Nishikori, Raonic, Tomic and maybe Dolgopolov are going to be solid second week contenders, giving us our first glimpse at the Heir Apparents to the current dynasty. Along with Del Potro, who is closer to their generation than to Murray-Nole-Rafa-Tsonga...

With the women, the good ones are advancing: Kvitova, Sharapova, Wozniacki, Clijsters and Azarenka. Serena was upset last night by Makarova, playing on an injured ankle. I think this will actually help Serena. She needed to get angry and start working harder to show these ladies who she is. I believe a hard working committed Serena can still beat anyone. But Kvitova and Clijsters certainly can beat her if she's not dedicated enough. Kvitova, Wozniacki and Sharapova are looking dominant, but I really don't like Sharapova's chances because her serve can be punished by the best players. The best match of the quarters will be defending champ Clijsters against Slamless #1 Wozniacki.

Tennis starts at 7 pm, and night matches are usually still on when we wake up. So watch some tennis!

The draw is out and the Happy Slam is upon us, with first round matches starting Sunday 6 pm EST. I think.

Here's what the men's draw looks like:

Defending champ Djokovic and two-time finalist Andy Murray fell into the same half; Rafa and Rog could face each other in a Slam semi for the first time since '05.

That's if they make it that far!

In the Quarters, Djokovic should draw David Ferrer, which should be a tough workout but not an existential threat. Murray on the other hand could face Jo Wilfred Tsonga, and THAT is the showdown of the quarterfinal round. Tsonga is the consensus pick as the non-Big Four contender.

Federer either gets Fish or Del Potro, and whichever it is should be a terrific match. Rafa gets Thomas Berdych, which is in theory a great match-up, but Thomas can never hold his head and game together long.

Rafa has a pillow-lined path to the finals, Andy Murray faces danger at each door.

Here are the matches to watch along the way:

1st round:

*Roddick/ Robin Haase (the talented but mentally weak Haase could knock ROddick off early!)

*Andy Murray/Ryan Harrison (young American Harrison will not win, but he should show some fight. And the two are champion scowlers, so it will be fun if you like grouches)

*Michael Llodra/Ernest Gulbis (neither of these are contenders, but they are ultra-exciting, talented players)

*Bernard Tomic/Fernando Verdasco (Australian Tomic is, after Raonic, the most talked about prospect. He has a weird, slicey, moonbally game like Andy Murray but he can REALLY power the ball after he bores you to sleep. Count on this upset when he takes out the former top-tenner Verdasco!)

OK, the first round is a little sparse, but the 2nd round really picks up. Watch for these:

2nd ROund
*Tommy Haas/Rafa
*Nalbandian/Isner
*Almagro/Dmitrov
*Baghdatis/Wawrinka
*Monfils/Bellucci
*Gasquet/Youzhny
*Roddick/Hewitt (an old boys final!)

3rd ROund
*Milos/Andy Roddick (end of the road for A-Rod, I think)
*Tipsarevic/Gasquet-Youzhny winner
*Andy Murray/Gulbis
*Simon/Nishikori
*Dolgopolov/Tomic-Verdasco winner
*Federer/Tuna Melzer
*Donald Young/Rafa

In the '90's, the Big Girl generation arrived: First The WIlliams Sisters, then Jeniffer Capriatti version II, Clijsters, Davenport. They dominated the WTA for years. For a time, Hingis seemed the rat dodging the elephants.
Less talked about is the arrival of Big Man tennis, which began with Soderling's defeat of Rafa at the French Open in 2009. That same year, Del Potro won the USOpen. Next, Berdych ran off a few wins over Federer and Djokovic, and a 2010 Wimbledon final, and this summer, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga returned to top tier tennis with two of the most impressive, and high level of tennis, wins over Federer.

And that about introduces the current crop of Big Men: Soderling, Tsonga, Del Potro and Berdych. There are other big men, for sure: And Murray, Bernard Tomic, Gael Monfils, Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, Sam Querrey. But they play small man tennis. The Huge Four, play eye-popping, jaw dropping big shots. When they are on form, they are devastating, and have between them the scalps of Federer, Rafa and Nole at various Slams. They are on to varying degrees at varying times. I would rate them like this:
Tsonga and Del Potro are the best, they move better than the others, and have better touch.
Soderling and Berdych also do not play as big as Tsonga and Del Potro. Tsonga and Del Potro go for broke on almost every stroke. They aim to smoke lines and opponents. Soderling and Berdych are slightly more timid. They can keep their Beast locked up for games at a time.
Watch out for the Big Men, they can provide some of the most exciting tennis and biggest upsets. Also, watch for Milos Raonic to join their ranks this year. His backhand is still pretty weak, but his weird quick loop forehand is devastating, and he seems fearless with it. He might also be the best natural net player of this group, and that will be a HUGE weapon with his serve.

This is also the year Milos has become the trendy prospect pick of all the commentators. He and Australian Bernard Tomic (still just 19) are the consensus break-out picks for 2012.

That is to say, a new tennis season is upon us, rising in the East, and where the year to unfold may already be read in the sky.

The first tourneys are under way, scattered across Asia Pacific as the players swarm hemispherically 'round Australia in preparation for the year's first Slam in a week's time. ANd those tourneys are telling us what to expect for this year.

If I had written a week ago of the prospects for this year, I would have rated Nole as the likely year end #1 with Roger and Rafa each contending at the Slams. I put Roger back up with Rafa because he tore through the nobody-cares fall calendar, including demolishing Rafa in the World Tour FInals.

But I also would have said I see room for breakthroughs this year, and I would have pegged Tsonga, Murray, and Del Potro as the most likely. I also would have bet on Milos Raonic and Alex Dolgopolov breaking into the top ten.

Fate has reached out through this first week of tennis to confirm her intentions: At the Doha tournament, Gael Monfils took out Rafa, and then Jo Wilfred Tsonga took out Gael in the finals.
In Brisbane, Andy Murray knocked out Dolgoplov in the final. And in Chennai, Milos Raonic took out top tenners Almagro and Tipsarevic en route to the title.

Expect it: big years are coming for Tsonga and Murray in terms of contending at Slams, and from Milos and Dolgopolov in terms of breaking into the top tier.

As for The Great Oz: I just don't know. I think perhaps the only player who can take out Djokovic there might be Murray- the only man who really doesn't fear him. I would say, I expect Nole, Murray or Roger to win. Would not be shocked to see Rafa or Tsonga in the finals, but don't think they'll win.

Of course, other players to keep an eye on, as always, include David Ferrer (the invisible man), Thomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and youngster Australian Bernard Tomic. And yesterday Del potro gave an interview claiming he is at his peak preparation and condition for the Slam this year. So lots of cool stuff going on.
Don't look behind the curtain.

UPDATE: Murray hired Lendl as his new coach. How cool is that? Their games are nothing alike, but they have one thing in common: each broke into Slam finals and stalled, losing several in a row. Lendl went on to win MANY (7?) as a late bloomer. Can Andy?

UPDATER: Murray is often called the best player never to have won a Slam. I always thought that couldn't be true. Surely in the history of tennis there were better players that had never won Slams. Nope. By just about any standard I could think to check, mainly, number of tournaments won, number of Masters won, number of Slam finals and semis, Murray is easily the best player never to have won a Slam. Cedric Pioline, David Nalbandian and Todd Martin won far fewer tournaments, for example. Vitas Gerulitis won a Slam (who knew?) Give that Murray has an amazing record in finals outside of Slams, and a pretty good record against the Big Three outside of Slams, you have to think he's going to win one.

Jumping on the Vagabond Zeitgeist Bandwagon, here's SI's look at best retired non-Slam winners:

Out of their picks, Marcelos Rios, who was briefly #1, comes closest to Murray's achievements, but Murray still wins out by most metrics other than ranking.

As rain delays play on some of the more uninteresting Slam quarterfinal matchups I've ever seen, let's take a stroll down memory lane by examining a case of a a great athlete's spiritual resurrection. Ivan Lendl gets little love these days, what with the Macenroe brothers dominating TV commentary, constantly exhuming the careers of Borg and Connors and, like Stalin, trying to write a nemesis from the history books.

But Lendl lives!

In one Rafael Nadal...

I'll state at the outset that Rafa is already more accomplished than Ivan, but there are some strong and varied parallels in their career. What got me started on this was wondering whether Rafa had any forebears in his situation of relative-surface dominance. This brought me to Lendl.

Each of these two players was considered, for a time at least, as the best player of his era. Each was also considered one of the greatest clay court players of all time.

Rafa fans are quite sensitive to the idea that Rafa is a great clay courter, as if saying this somehow is an insult to how great he is on all surfaces. The thing is, he's just not an all time great on hard courts and grass. His record on those surfaces is not just well below Federer and Sampras- its below Connors, Macenroe, Edberg, Becker, Agassi- and now, just about equal to the younger Djokovic.

Which is kind of an aside to help me get to differences: Lendl never got his white whale. Rafa did. The career slam, a validation that one time at least, Rafa was the greatest player in the world on each surface. Lendl's Wimbledon dream never came true- and he WAS a good grass player (2 finals and 5 semis), its not like he never had chances. (Contrast with Sampras who really really sucked at the French Open).
But Rafa's clay dominance, too is more complete and long lasting than Lendl's. Only Borg was in Rafa's class; Rafa's dominance at all tournaments is far more complete than Borg's, but I think Borg's clay competition was deeper: Gerulitis, Panneta, Connors (who won US Open on clay), Solomon... Rafa has had Fed, to be sure, but who beyond Fed has really been a clay court force during Rafa's career?

Back to Lendl. Lendl had something else in common with Rafa: they each led the wave of a new technology with new styles of play, and Rafa's really is an evolution of Lendl's.

Rafa has been called the killer of the serve and volley game. OK, that's an exaggeration, but his rise pretty much coincided with the disappearance of SandV as a competitive style at the very top levels.
Look at the grass wear patterns from Nadal's win over Berdych in 2010:

Compare to the wear in Borg and Macenroe's day:

(The change in Wimbledon grass to slow it down was a major part of it- Rafa's emergence coincided with the general trend in the game; he took advantage of it and made it the leading edge)
Lendl was in the same situation: he heralded the baseline basher era of Jimmy Arias, Becker, Agassi and Courier. Around 1990, we were hearing that the net game was doomed. Of course, that talk died down when Sampras became #1. Lendl was the first to combine the new graphite racquets, which allowed for more topspin and harder hitting without shattering the arm, with a new physicality. Lendly set a new standard for fitness on the tour at that time. As Rafa has set a new standard for physicality today with his bruising baseline game and extreme topspin (enabled by the superior strings most of today's players have adopted). How did Novak supplant Rafa at the top? By out-Rafa-ing Rafa. He runs fasters and chased down more balls. His rallies with Rafa are now out and out marathon, the ball arcing many feet above the net.

What's my point? Not much, really. Just some neat parallels. Unless... is there out there a Sampras to shortcut the Rafa era?

Here's Lendl in his prime. Note that SECOND SHOT by the returner- look familiar??