Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

Did you catch Fed's escape act today?

Fed barely escaped scalping in the first round against Alejandro Falla. Falla played the match of his life, Fed looked completely out of sorts, and only a few choked shanks from Falla kept him from exiting on Wimbledon Day One. Yet luck and a 6-0 fifth set were with Federer, who admitted afterwards that Falla probably deserved the win (and did anyone else notice the back pats Fed kept giving Falla on their way off court? Cute.)

But here we are, Fed is through and Roddick as well, so I'll get back to my thoughts on this tournament.

There are only two serious favourites. Roger (six time champ) and Rafa (2008 champ, missed 2009 with injury).

The next tier of contenders is a good step below: the two Andys. Andy Roddick, who lost a heartbreaker final to Fed last year, and a couple finals blowouts to the same man years earlier, and Andy Murray, who Roddick bested in a brilliant semis last year.

Those two have great grass games and always seem close in the Slams the last few years. I said before the draw that the fairest would be for each Andy to go on a different side. So it is: Roger gets Roddick, and Rafa gets Murray. Personally, I think Roddick is the more dangerous- he beat Rafa just before the clay season and Murray has been mostly absent since his own Demolition By Fed at Oz. Still, Murray can play here, he is the homecrowd favourite, and he played some of the best tennis of his life in beating Nadal in the Oz semis.

Looking further, I think the next tier of contenders has no genuine shot at the finals, but could knock out one of those top four. I count Hewitt, a former champ here who just beat Fed on grass last week, and who fought Roddick extremely tough last year. Look for him to possibly upset Djoker in the quarters. There's French Open upset specialist Soderling, whose huge serve could be troubling on grass- he fought Nadal closely here a couple years ago and is playing much better tennis now. Fittingly, he gets Nadal in the quarters. I would also count Berdych, whose game has really jumped to a new level in '10, Djokovic IF he gets his serve in a groove (big if)... and that's about it.

I've pretty much given up on Tsonga or Monfils making the jump to the next level.

So, while Fed has not had a good year since Oz, and Nadal lost early in his grass warm-up event, I just don't see anyone else showing the game to challenge. Nevertheless, look what Falla did to Fed this morning. Anything can happen. Nevertheless on that Nevertheless, remember back to Oz: Fed was outplayed and nearly upended early by Korolev, then went on to run the table and win the tourney.

Over the last three years, if you picked a Fedal final at each Slam, you'd have been right more often than wrong. So I'll keep doing it. But keep an eye on Hewitt, Roddick, Murray and Soderling. I'm also very interested in how de Bakker progresses. I see that another great junior (and major dickwad) Bernard Tomic was already knocked out today.

On the women's side, I think Serena will take it in a walk. But I'll have my eye on Melanie Oudin. Just in case.