Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

That is to say, a new tennis season is upon us, rising in the East, and where the year to unfold may already be read in the sky.

The first tourneys are under way, scattered across Asia Pacific as the players swarm hemispherically 'round Australia in preparation for the year's first Slam in a week's time. ANd those tourneys are telling us what to expect for this year.

If I had written a week ago of the prospects for this year, I would have rated Nole as the likely year end #1 with Roger and Rafa each contending at the Slams. I put Roger back up with Rafa because he tore through the nobody-cares fall calendar, including demolishing Rafa in the World Tour FInals.

But I also would have said I see room for breakthroughs this year, and I would have pegged Tsonga, Murray, and Del Potro as the most likely. I also would have bet on Milos Raonic and Alex Dolgopolov breaking into the top ten.

Fate has reached out through this first week of tennis to confirm her intentions: At the Doha tournament, Gael Monfils took out Rafa, and then Jo Wilfred Tsonga took out Gael in the finals.
In Brisbane, Andy Murray knocked out Dolgoplov in the final. And in Chennai, Milos Raonic took out top tenners Almagro and Tipsarevic en route to the title.

Expect it: big years are coming for Tsonga and Murray in terms of contending at Slams, and from Milos and Dolgopolov in terms of breaking into the top tier.

As for The Great Oz: I just don't know. I think perhaps the only player who can take out Djokovic there might be Murray- the only man who really doesn't fear him. I would say, I expect Nole, Murray or Roger to win. Would not be shocked to see Rafa or Tsonga in the finals, but don't think they'll win.

Of course, other players to keep an eye on, as always, include David Ferrer (the invisible man), Thomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and youngster Australian Bernard Tomic. And yesterday Del potro gave an interview claiming he is at his peak preparation and condition for the Slam this year. So lots of cool stuff going on.
Don't look behind the curtain.

UPDATE: Murray hired Lendl as his new coach. How cool is that? Their games are nothing alike, but they have one thing in common: each broke into Slam finals and stalled, losing several in a row. Lendl went on to win MANY (7?) as a late bloomer. Can Andy?

UPDATER: Murray is often called the best player never to have won a Slam. I always thought that couldn't be true. Surely in the history of tennis there were better players that had never won Slams. Nope. By just about any standard I could think to check, mainly, number of tournaments won, number of Masters won, number of Slam finals and semis, Murray is easily the best player never to have won a Slam. Cedric Pioline, David Nalbandian and Todd Martin won far fewer tournaments, for example. Vitas Gerulitis won a Slam (who knew?) Give that Murray has an amazing record in finals outside of Slams, and a pretty good record against the Big Three outside of Slams, you have to think he's going to win one.

Jumping on the Vagabond Zeitgeist Bandwagon, here's SI's look at best retired non-Slam winners:

Out of their picks, Marcelos Rios, who was briefly #1, comes closest to Murray's achievements, but Murray still wins out by most metrics other than ranking.

A look at the men's race, and what to expect till end-of-year:
First, here is where they stand. Their points are the 1st number, points to next-man-up 2nd, and points to defend from this point to end of year is 3rd (ie how many points they won last year from the US Open to end of year)

1) Rog: 11240; ---; 1400
2) Nadal: 8845; 2400 (to catch Rog); 700
3) Murray: 8390; 250 (to catch Rafa); 2350
4) Djoker: 7480; 900 (to catch Murray); 1840
5) DelPo: 6825; 550 (to catch Murray); 1170

Now, between here and Christmas, there are a few small tourneys, but also two Masters 1000s, and the year end championship. So 3 chances for big points. Looking above we see that Murray and Djoker have WHACKS of points to defend, while Rog, DelPo and Rafa have fewer.

SO:
*Rog is virtually untouchable at #1, and having relatively few points to defend from last year, he should enter Australia with an even firmer grip on the top spot.
*Andy SEEMS close to Rafa, but in reality, Andy has the most to lose here, while Rafa has the least to lose. So, although Rafa is injured and just pulled out of a small event, he has some healing time before the next big one. So unless Murray dominates this part of the year, as he did last year, Rafa will increase his hold on #2.
*DelPo is positioned very well to make a run at Djoker, and even Murray. Djoker also did well last year, winning the Year-End. If he doesn't duplicate that success, and DelPo goes on a roll, look for a new number 4 by Christmas. And if Murray really slumps, we could have DelPo enter Australia at #3!

Which puts Andy and Nole up for year end spankings!