Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

We're through to the quarters, and we'll have at least two good ones: Federer is, as hoped, facing Juan Martin del Potro. Both are coming in to the match in top form. As is his wont, delPo has been improving with each round as that massive forehand finds its range. Federer is in full flight. He easily stopped Aussie teen Bernard Tomic to put THE END on the Story of the Tournament So Far.
In the other bottom halfer, Rafa faces #7 Thomas Berdych. Berdych ended his last match with a little crybaby episode against Nicolas Almagro for getting pegged at the net. He will be booed, and Rafa will be teed up to defend the Spanish honour. Nevertheless, Berdych has been playing well. He has the game, in theory, to trouble Rafa. I don't want to get my hopes up, because Berdych is a disapointer, but this COULD be a great match.

In the top half we have Djokovic as expected against David Ferrer. And Ferrer just keeps winning matches with no one talking about him. Ferrer won't beat Djokovic. The match will probably be boring, defensive vanilla tennis. But Ferrer will make Djokovic work. Like Limpy Lleyton Hewitt just did in the last round. So when Nole makes the semis, against Murray, he is going to be tired. Terrible game plan for Nole against Hewitt, playing pure defense against the guy who wrote the book on grind tennis. That was some excrutiatingly boring tennis and it
kept Djokovic on a blistering hot court for 3 hours.

Which brings us to the last match. In probably the upset of the tournament, #24 Kei Nishikori has just taken out dark horse contender #6 Jo Wilfred Tsonga in a 5-set barnburner of a match. Kei is one of the up and coming youngsters. While Raonic and Tomic had the Buzz coming in, Kei has been the most successful. Is he still being coached by Brad Gilbert? Murray has had an absolute walk through his draw, so he should get through Kei easily and in great fitness to take on Nole.

I think Fed is likeliest to be knocked off, then Rafa. I should probably give Ferrer more credit, but I just don't see him taking Nole out, I would even pick Kei over Murray first. Anyways, its almost a certainty that we'll have a Murray-Nole semi.

Two things I'd say about this tourney see far: we're seeing for the first time, a really consistent group join the Big Four: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro, Berdych. We can expect to see this group in Slam quarters from here on out, I think, and I wouldn't be shocked if Monfils joins that group.

Secondly, we are seeing the proof that Nishikori, Raonic, Tomic and maybe Dolgopolov are going to be solid second week contenders, giving us our first glimpse at the Heir Apparents to the current dynasty. Along with Del Potro, who is closer to their generation than to Murray-Nole-Rafa-Tsonga...

With the women, the good ones are advancing: Kvitova, Sharapova, Wozniacki, Clijsters and Azarenka. Serena was upset last night by Makarova, playing on an injured ankle. I think this will actually help Serena. She needed to get angry and start working harder to show these ladies who she is. I believe a hard working committed Serena can still beat anyone. But Kvitova and Clijsters certainly can beat her if she's not dedicated enough. Kvitova, Wozniacki and Sharapova are looking dominant, but I really don't like Sharapova's chances because her serve can be punished by the best players. The best match of the quarters will be defending champ Clijsters against Slamless #1 Wozniacki.

Tennis starts at 7 pm, and night matches are usually still on when we wake up. So watch some tennis!

The draw is out and the Happy Slam is upon us, with first round matches starting Sunday 6 pm EST. I think.

Here's what the men's draw looks like:

Defending champ Djokovic and two-time finalist Andy Murray fell into the same half; Rafa and Rog could face each other in a Slam semi for the first time since '05.

That's if they make it that far!

In the Quarters, Djokovic should draw David Ferrer, which should be a tough workout but not an existential threat. Murray on the other hand could face Jo Wilfred Tsonga, and THAT is the showdown of the quarterfinal round. Tsonga is the consensus pick as the non-Big Four contender.

Federer either gets Fish or Del Potro, and whichever it is should be a terrific match. Rafa gets Thomas Berdych, which is in theory a great match-up, but Thomas can never hold his head and game together long.

Rafa has a pillow-lined path to the finals, Andy Murray faces danger at each door.

Here are the matches to watch along the way:

1st round:

*Roddick/ Robin Haase (the talented but mentally weak Haase could knock ROddick off early!)

*Andy Murray/Ryan Harrison (young American Harrison will not win, but he should show some fight. And the two are champion scowlers, so it will be fun if you like grouches)

*Michael Llodra/Ernest Gulbis (neither of these are contenders, but they are ultra-exciting, talented players)

*Bernard Tomic/Fernando Verdasco (Australian Tomic is, after Raonic, the most talked about prospect. He has a weird, slicey, moonbally game like Andy Murray but he can REALLY power the ball after he bores you to sleep. Count on this upset when he takes out the former top-tenner Verdasco!)

OK, the first round is a little sparse, but the 2nd round really picks up. Watch for these:

2nd ROund
*Tommy Haas/Rafa
*Nalbandian/Isner
*Almagro/Dmitrov
*Baghdatis/Wawrinka
*Monfils/Bellucci
*Gasquet/Youzhny
*Roddick/Hewitt (an old boys final!)

3rd ROund
*Milos/Andy Roddick (end of the road for A-Rod, I think)
*Tipsarevic/Gasquet-Youzhny winner
*Andy Murray/Gulbis
*Simon/Nishikori
*Dolgopolov/Tomic-Verdasco winner
*Federer/Tuna Melzer
*Donald Young/Rafa

In the '90's, the Big Girl generation arrived: First The WIlliams Sisters, then Jeniffer Capriatti version II, Clijsters, Davenport. They dominated the WTA for years. For a time, Hingis seemed the rat dodging the elephants.
Less talked about is the arrival of Big Man tennis, which began with Soderling's defeat of Rafa at the French Open in 2009. That same year, Del Potro won the USOpen. Next, Berdych ran off a few wins over Federer and Djokovic, and a 2010 Wimbledon final, and this summer, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga returned to top tier tennis with two of the most impressive, and high level of tennis, wins over Federer.

And that about introduces the current crop of Big Men: Soderling, Tsonga, Del Potro and Berdych. There are other big men, for sure: And Murray, Bernard Tomic, Gael Monfils, Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, Sam Querrey. But they play small man tennis. The Huge Four, play eye-popping, jaw dropping big shots. When they are on form, they are devastating, and have between them the scalps of Federer, Rafa and Nole at various Slams. They are on to varying degrees at varying times. I would rate them like this:
Tsonga and Del Potro are the best, they move better than the others, and have better touch.
Soderling and Berdych also do not play as big as Tsonga and Del Potro. Tsonga and Del Potro go for broke on almost every stroke. They aim to smoke lines and opponents. Soderling and Berdych are slightly more timid. They can keep their Beast locked up for games at a time.
Watch out for the Big Men, they can provide some of the most exciting tennis and biggest upsets. Also, watch for Milos Raonic to join their ranks this year. His backhand is still pretty weak, but his weird quick loop forehand is devastating, and he seems fearless with it. He might also be the best natural net player of this group, and that will be a HUGE weapon with his serve.

This is also the year Milos has become the trendy prospect pick of all the commentators. He and Australian Bernard Tomic (still just 19) are the consensus break-out picks for 2012.

That is to say, a new tennis season is upon us, rising in the East, and where the year to unfold may already be read in the sky.

The first tourneys are under way, scattered across Asia Pacific as the players swarm hemispherically 'round Australia in preparation for the year's first Slam in a week's time. ANd those tourneys are telling us what to expect for this year.

If I had written a week ago of the prospects for this year, I would have rated Nole as the likely year end #1 with Roger and Rafa each contending at the Slams. I put Roger back up with Rafa because he tore through the nobody-cares fall calendar, including demolishing Rafa in the World Tour FInals.

But I also would have said I see room for breakthroughs this year, and I would have pegged Tsonga, Murray, and Del Potro as the most likely. I also would have bet on Milos Raonic and Alex Dolgopolov breaking into the top ten.

Fate has reached out through this first week of tennis to confirm her intentions: At the Doha tournament, Gael Monfils took out Rafa, and then Jo Wilfred Tsonga took out Gael in the finals.
In Brisbane, Andy Murray knocked out Dolgoplov in the final. And in Chennai, Milos Raonic took out top tenners Almagro and Tipsarevic en route to the title.

Expect it: big years are coming for Tsonga and Murray in terms of contending at Slams, and from Milos and Dolgopolov in terms of breaking into the top tier.

As for The Great Oz: I just don't know. I think perhaps the only player who can take out Djokovic there might be Murray- the only man who really doesn't fear him. I would say, I expect Nole, Murray or Roger to win. Would not be shocked to see Rafa or Tsonga in the finals, but don't think they'll win.

Of course, other players to keep an eye on, as always, include David Ferrer (the invisible man), Thomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and youngster Australian Bernard Tomic. And yesterday Del potro gave an interview claiming he is at his peak preparation and condition for the Slam this year. So lots of cool stuff going on.
Don't look behind the curtain.

UPDATE: Murray hired Lendl as his new coach. How cool is that? Their games are nothing alike, but they have one thing in common: each broke into Slam finals and stalled, losing several in a row. Lendl went on to win MANY (7?) as a late bloomer. Can Andy?

UPDATER: Murray is often called the best player never to have won a Slam. I always thought that couldn't be true. Surely in the history of tennis there were better players that had never won Slams. Nope. By just about any standard I could think to check, mainly, number of tournaments won, number of Masters won, number of Slam finals and semis, Murray is easily the best player never to have won a Slam. Cedric Pioline, David Nalbandian and Todd Martin won far fewer tournaments, for example. Vitas Gerulitis won a Slam (who knew?) Give that Murray has an amazing record in finals outside of Slams, and a pretty good record against the Big Three outside of Slams, you have to think he's going to win one.

Jumping on the Vagabond Zeitgeist Bandwagon, here's SI's look at best retired non-Slam winners:

Out of their picks, Marcelos Rios, who was briefly #1, comes closest to Murray's achievements, but Murray still wins out by most metrics other than ranking.

The Finals Match
Anyone else wondering about the weird way Murray seemed to resent his box (including dude's mom!), constantly sniping at them, giving nasty looks, and shouting “Shut the F up!”?

There could be a very strange familial relationship/ motivation here that is giving negative pressure to Murray. Everyone always speaks of how the pressure of his country overwhelms him. I think that misses the target. I have a feeling there’s a family dynamic that he is carrying poorly, and that he will need to grow up and shed to play freely.

Just a theory, but there’s something going on there- I’ve never seen a player disrespect his own people like that, certainly not in a Slam final.

On the tennis: Nole was brilliant against Fed and well, hard to say he was brilliant against Murry because he really wasn’t tested. Murray just flat out did not compete, but Djokovic more than held up his side of the bargain.

HISTORY

I believe this is the most important Slam in some years. At the top, we had a no Fed, no Rafa final for the first Grand Slam in 3 years! I do think the Fed-al stranglehold has been broken for good. Rafa may well sweep the clay season, and one of them may well win Wimbledon. But on hardcourts, they will no longer be shoe-ins. For 3 years, every Slam generates excitement among fans that THIS time there are real challengers to the Big Two. And we're always wrong. This AO it seemed like there was no question but that Rafa, winner of three straight Slams, or Fed, winner of 4 of his last 5 tournaments, who walloped Nole and Rafa at the Masters Finals, would win. Not only did neither make the finals, but both Murray and Nole exhibited tennis at this tournament that can rival Rafa or Fed's- if not their best, at least their B+ games.

So there is shifting at the top among the True Slam Contenders. The next level, the Fake Slam Contenders, holds together: Soderling, Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer... but Del Potro has shown he could return to this group- or even skip right over them, very soon- provided his wrist holds up! B
But below that level, we've got some new and exciting names and faces. We will see at least a couple of Raonic, Dolgopolov, Tomic, Nishikori, or Dmitrov breaking into the top twenty over the next few months. The second Post New Balls generation is arrived! Give them a year, and some will break into the Fake Slam Contenders group.

The rankings are out! The rankings are out!
The rankings are out! The rankings are out!

1) Rog and Nole are separated by razor thin margins
2) Same with Soda and Muzza
3) Ferrer is 6, Melzer is 10, Wawrinka to 14, Tsonga to 18, Nalbandian to 19
4) Dolgopolov to 32! We will be seeing a lot more Dolgopolov!
5) Davydenko out of the top 32- no seed protection=dangerous floater for Rafa in particular
6) Nishikori up 12 to 70, Berankis up 22! to 73, Dmitrov up 20 to 86 (all outside Masters main draws still)
7) Milos Raonic up 58 spaces to 94!!
8) Fernando Gonzalez is almost out of the top 100

Next?
We have a quiet couple months, some smaller tournaments where we can watch our newcomers (Raonic has made it through the qualifiers in Johanesburg as we speak), await more results for Del Potro, and catch a glimpse of the stars at their choice backwaters.

Then we hit end of February and March with the two big American hardourt Masters in Indian Wells and Key Biscayne- could be some good tennis there. Key Biscayne is better known as Bacon O'Rourke's tournament.
Then, like Howard Dean, we move into the clay season. The only question is whether anyone can stop Rafa from a sweep. You'd have to guess that last years success is unrepeatable simply because it was so unprecedented and extreme. The next two best clay courters in the world by the way are Federer, Nole, and Ferrer, so our biggest names could be tussling in the Spring.

My hope is that by the French Open, Del Potro, Ranoic and Dolgopolov will all have some wins and credibility under their belts, and Djokovic will show he is up for the Rafa challenge on the dirt.