Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

The Headliners
This year began with 3 storylines worth watching, but after 3 of the 4 majors have played out, two fizzled and one grew to epic proportions. The diminishing stories were the return of Del Potro and emergence of young guns, Raonic, Harrison, Tomic and Dolgopolov.

But the story of the year, without a doubt, is Novak Djokovic who has turned in one of the great seasons in tennis history, complete with 5 straight championship match wins over Rafael Nadal, on hard courts, clay and grass. Nole has only lost twice this season, once in possibly the match of the year in the French semis to Federer, and once last week when he quit in the Cincinnati finals to Andy Murray citing a shoulder injury.
He is, possibly flirting with Johnny Mac's 1984 campaign, which went something like 80-odd wins and 3 or 4 losses (sorry, no easy internet connection at the cottage, so stats are from memory). If he wins the USO, compiling 3 Slams in a season, it will be up there in the list of great seasons in post-Laver times (Fed had 3 Slams, a 4th Slam Final, a Year End Championship and about 5 losses in 2005 or 2006. Fed has actually hit the 3 Slams and a Final mark 3 times! Last year, Rafa won 3 Slams but had somewhere close to 10 losses).

By the way, I always liked Novak and found his antics pretty funny. The more exposure that he gets, the more sick I am of seeing him take his shirt off and flex.

So…
your favourite for this years US Open, hands down, Novak Djokovic.

Then you have Rafa. What to make of the bumpicking baseliner? After shocking clay court beatdowns to Novak in two straight Masters tournaments in the spring, he resumed his traditional place in the French Open's champion spot, only to lose convincingly to Novak at WImbledon. THere is no doubt Novak is in Rafa's head much as Rafa has been for so long in Federer's (one interesting difference: Rafa admits it, Fed continues to pretend not to notice).

Rafa has had a shitty hardcore summer so far. But he's clearly changing his tactics again, looking to regain the aggressive, offensive form that he took to the USOpen trophy last year. Its so hard to count Rafa out in a Slam, but right now he does not go into this tournament with the other players shaking as he has for the last few years. That alone will cost him a few points here and there.

Newly demoted #3 Roger Federer keeps telling everyone he's happy with his game, and after over a year with his new coach (former Sampras aide) Paul Anacone, he does look good. Except when he doesn't. And it only has to happen once a tournament. As long as Federer doesn't run into someone having a career day, he's winning, but he seems to be running into players-at-their-best a LOT lately. Like to Soderling at the French last year, then Berdych at Wimbledon. After a very tight French Open loss to Rafa this year, Fed lost to a sizzling Tsonga at Wimbledon, then AGAIN to Tsonga playing one of the greatest matches I've ever seen in Montreal, and AGAIN to a hot Berdych in Cincinnati. There are seven matches to a Slam trophy and it seems to me that somewhere in there Fed will face someone having a great day. Fed is having a hard time finding that level.

Still, he's doing better than Andy Murray. After getting blown out in Novak's Oz coming out party, Murray has been showing up at the Slams, making decent semifinals runs, then disappearing for all other tournaments. We were ready to forget about MAndy altogether until… he won Cincinnati, knocking out the unbeatable Novak in the finals just last week.

The Pretenders

There are three or four players right now that could be outsider shots at a USO title, or at least finals: Jo-Willy Tsonga, who is finally getting some consistent health and showing that when he's on, he can match up with anyone in the world. He has a flat out beautiful game, his victory over Fed at Wimbledon was stellar, but his performance in Montreal was just magic.

Then there's DelPotro. DelPotro won the 2009 USOpen, beating both Rafa and Fed, then took a year off with wrist problems. His return this year was a terrific story, a constantly upwards trajectory, beating several top tenners convincingly, then taking a set off the (then undefeated in 2011) Novak at the French and fighting Rafa to what was essentially a draw at Wimbledon (losing out by the barest of margins in tiebreaks). Most of the tennis world expected the summer hardcourts to be where he'd take the next step, alas, its been a step backwards. He's had a few straight lacklustre losses, not great prep for New York. But he is a champion, and one with more effortless power and natural offense than anyone on tour.

Our third dark horse is Mardy Fish. The stoner underachiever from the Fed-Roddick generation finally got off the munchies, dropped about twenty pounds, and rose for the first time into the top ten. This summer, he's been playing the best tennis of his life. He's never made it past a Slam quarters, but he's never played like this before. His serve is lights out and he may be the best volleyer on tour right now.

If I were to force one more contender out it would be Berdych, who has shown some signs of life this summer after a major let down following last years Wimbledon finals.

The Draw and Matches

Semifinals line up as Novak v Fed and Murray v Rafa. Remember that Fed knocked Novak out of the French, and Murray has twice beaten Rafa at hardcourt Slams.

Fed has by far the toughest draw overall, Rafa's is a cakewalk.

Quarterfinals line up as
Novak vs Berdych
Fed vs Tsonga or Fish
Rafa vs David Ferrer
Murray vs Robin Soderling.

Great match-ups, real and potential:
First round:
Ryan Harrison, the very promising young American against the formerly very promising young Croat Marin Cilic.
Nikolay Davydenko vs recent Rafa-slayer Ivan Dodig
Grigor Dmitrov vs Gael Monfils
Mikhail Youzhny vs Ernest "Hooker Lover" Gulbis

After that, we look forward to:
Federer vs Brazillian Boy Ball Basher Bellucci in the 2nd rnd
Australia's Future Top Tenner Bernard Tomic vs American Future Top Tenner Harrison in the 2nd
Gilles Simon vs Del Potro (3rd)
Murray vs The Other Swiss Stan Wawrinka in the 3rd
Gasquet vs Dolgopolov in the 3rd

Then we get some doozies the best of the 4th round include:
Djokovic/Gasquet
Berdych/Monfils
Tsonga/ FIsh (MATCH OF THE FIRST WEEK!)
Soderling/DelPotro
Wawrinka/Murray
Ernest Gulbis or Jurgen Melzer vs Rafa in the 4th

For whats its worth: I have Tsonga over Fish, and Fed over Tsonga.
I have DelPo over Simon, SOderling, Murray and Rafa. Crazy, no? Yeah, I'm nuts that way.
I have Fed over Nole, and a Fed/DelPotro 2009 rematch.

WHAT SAY YOU??

The Women:
Kim Clijsters is out with an injury. Everybody else sucks except Serena Williams. Caroline "I Can't Believe She's #1" Wozniaki has been playing awful. Maria Sharapova has been alright, but she's got a bad shoulder and bad serve that will be murdered if she faces Serena. Serena is ranked, like 30th, since her injury layoff, but that is just bad news for the upper seeds who have to face her early.

Lets tennis!

The two storylines of the year collide at Roland Garros tomorrow:

Novak Djokovic, whose impossible streak has included the Australian Open, two masters events on hard court and two masters events on clay, 4-0 against Rafa, 3-0 against Fed, 41 straight wins (ties Fed's best streak), 39 straight to start the year (two back of Mac's best start-of-year in the open era.

vs.
Juan Martin Del Potro, the comeback kid. Remember him? He beat Rafa and Fed back to back to win the '09 USOpen, the finaled in the end of year Masters Cup. DelPo had rocketed up the rankings for two years and had a game the top players feared. He was on his way to #1, I thought. A month or two later he was out for a year with wrist problems.
He's been back several months now. He's won two tournaments, and beaten world #6 Robin Soderling twice. What I find so interesting about DelPo is that when he left the game a year ago, he was on the steepest improvement curve I'd ever seen. You could see him getting better from tournament to tournament.
Now he's back and, starting from way disadvantaged in fitness and game, he has gotten better from tournament to tournament.

A lot of folks don't think DelPo has a chance. Nole is absolutely dialed in.
I don't know if anyone can stop Nole now. But I like DelPo's chances almost as much as Rafa or Fed's. And if DelPo can't beat him now, I'd wager by summer he'll be able to manage it. This kid's potential is simply enormous- provided his body doesn't break down.

After (or due to) 2 rounds of boring match-ups, the undercard on Day 1 of Round 3 is stacked: Tsonga vs Wawrinka should be a great battle of two huge hitting, aggressive players who can move. Gasquet vs Bellucci pits the resurgent former wunderkind (and cocaine kisser) vs the current wunderkind. Both are playing great, entertaining tennis. The fourth best match of the day is only Federer vs the always entertaining Janko Tipsarevic who is, though a big underdog, playing some good tennis. Also Ferrer playing.

Saturday, Rafa will be in action, trying to get his game into a higher gear after four straight losses to Djokovic and a very difficult first two rounds. Fortunately for him, he has a real nobody next round. Andy Murray, Robin Soderling, Hot Sauce Verdasco, and The Dog will also play Saturday. Not all at once on the same court like a wrestling battle royale, but that would be neat.

Madrid Masters, 2pm Thursday

The Clay Monster vs The Tower of Tandil

Rafa puts his 2 year streak of clay perfection on the line against Juan Martin del Potro, the man who demolished him in the USO semis 2 years ago, before a year off to heal his wrist.

DelPotro's comeback this season has been spectacular, last week he won his first clay court tournament in two years with wins over clay powers Soderling and Verdasco. But those two worthies are as nothing next to the Beast that is Rafa.

On the undercard: Soderling vs Jo Willy
update
DelPo pulls out with a hip injury. Unsure if he'll be back for Rome next week or even Roland Garros. Horribly disappointing. Rafa gets a bye through the round of 16, then has a gimme in the quarters after Melzer eliminated from that section... which means that whichever of Fed/Tsonga or Soderling get through to the semis, they will be facing a fresh and foaming bull across the net.

Juan Martin Del Potro vs World #4 Robin Soderling

Key Biscayne, 3rd Round

This is a great match-up of two full out ball smashers. Not only will this match tell us how far Juan Martin Del Potro has really progressed in his comeback, if he wins this he automatically becomes a Slam contender in the Universal Tennis Consciousness. It is also really a battle for the position of #1 Big Man in the sport.

Expect big shots and short rallies. Get your popcorn!
UPDATE!
That sound you heard around 6:40 this evening was the rest of the tour pooping themselves over DelPo's total demolition of the world #4, and beltholder as the tour's biggest hitter. Till today.
DelPotro looked AWESOME today. So if he can tear apart the world #4, what does that make the man who was ranked in the 400's just months ago? We may find out, as DelPotro is one Mardy Fish away from a meeting with the hottest player on tour, the undefeated in 2011 Novak Djokovic.

A look at the men's race, and what to expect till end-of-year:
First, here is where they stand. Their points are the 1st number, points to next-man-up 2nd, and points to defend from this point to end of year is 3rd (ie how many points they won last year from the US Open to end of year)

1) Rog: 11240; ---; 1400
2) Nadal: 8845; 2400 (to catch Rog); 700
3) Murray: 8390; 250 (to catch Rafa); 2350
4) Djoker: 7480; 900 (to catch Murray); 1840
5) DelPo: 6825; 550 (to catch Murray); 1170

Now, between here and Christmas, there are a few small tourneys, but also two Masters 1000s, and the year end championship. So 3 chances for big points. Looking above we see that Murray and Djoker have WHACKS of points to defend, while Rog, DelPo and Rafa have fewer.

SO:
*Rog is virtually untouchable at #1, and having relatively few points to defend from last year, he should enter Australia with an even firmer grip on the top spot.
*Andy SEEMS close to Rafa, but in reality, Andy has the most to lose here, while Rafa has the least to lose. So, although Rafa is injured and just pulled out of a small event, he has some healing time before the next big one. So unless Murray dominates this part of the year, as he did last year, Rafa will increase his hold on #2.
*DelPo is positioned very well to make a run at Djoker, and even Murray. Djoker also did well last year, winning the Year-End. If he doesn't duplicate that success, and DelPo goes on a roll, look for a new number 4 by Christmas. And if Murray really slumps, we could have DelPo enter Australia at #3!

Which puts Andy and Nole up for year end spankings!