Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

We're through to the quarters, and we'll have at least two good ones: Federer is, as hoped, facing Juan Martin del Potro. Both are coming in to the match in top form. As is his wont, delPo has been improving with each round as that massive forehand finds its range. Federer is in full flight. He easily stopped Aussie teen Bernard Tomic to put THE END on the Story of the Tournament So Far.
In the other bottom halfer, Rafa faces #7 Thomas Berdych. Berdych ended his last match with a little crybaby episode against Nicolas Almagro for getting pegged at the net. He will be booed, and Rafa will be teed up to defend the Spanish honour. Nevertheless, Berdych has been playing well. He has the game, in theory, to trouble Rafa. I don't want to get my hopes up, because Berdych is a disapointer, but this COULD be a great match.

In the top half we have Djokovic as expected against David Ferrer. And Ferrer just keeps winning matches with no one talking about him. Ferrer won't beat Djokovic. The match will probably be boring, defensive vanilla tennis. But Ferrer will make Djokovic work. Like Limpy Lleyton Hewitt just did in the last round. So when Nole makes the semis, against Murray, he is going to be tired. Terrible game plan for Nole against Hewitt, playing pure defense against the guy who wrote the book on grind tennis. That was some excrutiatingly boring tennis and it
kept Djokovic on a blistering hot court for 3 hours.

Which brings us to the last match. In probably the upset of the tournament, #24 Kei Nishikori has just taken out dark horse contender #6 Jo Wilfred Tsonga in a 5-set barnburner of a match. Kei is one of the up and coming youngsters. While Raonic and Tomic had the Buzz coming in, Kei has been the most successful. Is he still being coached by Brad Gilbert? Murray has had an absolute walk through his draw, so he should get through Kei easily and in great fitness to take on Nole.

I think Fed is likeliest to be knocked off, then Rafa. I should probably give Ferrer more credit, but I just don't see him taking Nole out, I would even pick Kei over Murray first. Anyways, its almost a certainty that we'll have a Murray-Nole semi.

Two things I'd say about this tourney see far: we're seeing for the first time, a really consistent group join the Big Four: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro, Berdych. We can expect to see this group in Slam quarters from here on out, I think, and I wouldn't be shocked if Monfils joins that group.

Secondly, we are seeing the proof that Nishikori, Raonic, Tomic and maybe Dolgopolov are going to be solid second week contenders, giving us our first glimpse at the Heir Apparents to the current dynasty. Along with Del Potro, who is closer to their generation than to Murray-Nole-Rafa-Tsonga...

With the women, the good ones are advancing: Kvitova, Sharapova, Wozniacki, Clijsters and Azarenka. Serena was upset last night by Makarova, playing on an injured ankle. I think this will actually help Serena. She needed to get angry and start working harder to show these ladies who she is. I believe a hard working committed Serena can still beat anyone. But Kvitova and Clijsters certainly can beat her if she's not dedicated enough. Kvitova, Wozniacki and Sharapova are looking dominant, but I really don't like Sharapova's chances because her serve can be punished by the best players. The best match of the quarters will be defending champ Clijsters against Slamless #1 Wozniacki.

Tennis starts at 7 pm, and night matches are usually still on when we wake up. So watch some tennis!

The draw is out and the Happy Slam is upon us, with first round matches starting Sunday 6 pm EST. I think.

Here's what the men's draw looks like:

Defending champ Djokovic and two-time finalist Andy Murray fell into the same half; Rafa and Rog could face each other in a Slam semi for the first time since '05.

That's if they make it that far!

In the Quarters, Djokovic should draw David Ferrer, which should be a tough workout but not an existential threat. Murray on the other hand could face Jo Wilfred Tsonga, and THAT is the showdown of the quarterfinal round. Tsonga is the consensus pick as the non-Big Four contender.

Federer either gets Fish or Del Potro, and whichever it is should be a terrific match. Rafa gets Thomas Berdych, which is in theory a great match-up, but Thomas can never hold his head and game together long.

Rafa has a pillow-lined path to the finals, Andy Murray faces danger at each door.

Here are the matches to watch along the way:

1st round:

*Roddick/ Robin Haase (the talented but mentally weak Haase could knock ROddick off early!)

*Andy Murray/Ryan Harrison (young American Harrison will not win, but he should show some fight. And the two are champion scowlers, so it will be fun if you like grouches)

*Michael Llodra/Ernest Gulbis (neither of these are contenders, but they are ultra-exciting, talented players)

*Bernard Tomic/Fernando Verdasco (Australian Tomic is, after Raonic, the most talked about prospect. He has a weird, slicey, moonbally game like Andy Murray but he can REALLY power the ball after he bores you to sleep. Count on this upset when he takes out the former top-tenner Verdasco!)

OK, the first round is a little sparse, but the 2nd round really picks up. Watch for these:

2nd ROund
*Tommy Haas/Rafa
*Nalbandian/Isner
*Almagro/Dmitrov
*Baghdatis/Wawrinka
*Monfils/Bellucci
*Gasquet/Youzhny
*Roddick/Hewitt (an old boys final!)

3rd ROund
*Milos/Andy Roddick (end of the road for A-Rod, I think)
*Tipsarevic/Gasquet-Youzhny winner
*Andy Murray/Gulbis
*Simon/Nishikori
*Dolgopolov/Tomic-Verdasco winner
*Federer/Tuna Melzer
*Donald Young/Rafa

In the '90's, the Big Girl generation arrived: First The WIlliams Sisters, then Jeniffer Capriatti version II, Clijsters, Davenport. They dominated the WTA for years. For a time, Hingis seemed the rat dodging the elephants.
Less talked about is the arrival of Big Man tennis, which began with Soderling's defeat of Rafa at the French Open in 2009. That same year, Del Potro won the USOpen. Next, Berdych ran off a few wins over Federer and Djokovic, and a 2010 Wimbledon final, and this summer, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga returned to top tier tennis with two of the most impressive, and high level of tennis, wins over Federer.

And that about introduces the current crop of Big Men: Soderling, Tsonga, Del Potro and Berdych. There are other big men, for sure: And Murray, Bernard Tomic, Gael Monfils, Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, Sam Querrey. But they play small man tennis. The Huge Four, play eye-popping, jaw dropping big shots. When they are on form, they are devastating, and have between them the scalps of Federer, Rafa and Nole at various Slams. They are on to varying degrees at varying times. I would rate them like this:
Tsonga and Del Potro are the best, they move better than the others, and have better touch.
Soderling and Berdych also do not play as big as Tsonga and Del Potro. Tsonga and Del Potro go for broke on almost every stroke. They aim to smoke lines and opponents. Soderling and Berdych are slightly more timid. They can keep their Beast locked up for games at a time.
Watch out for the Big Men, they can provide some of the most exciting tennis and biggest upsets. Also, watch for Milos Raonic to join their ranks this year. His backhand is still pretty weak, but his weird quick loop forehand is devastating, and he seems fearless with it. He might also be the best natural net player of this group, and that will be a HUGE weapon with his serve.

This is also the year Milos has become the trendy prospect pick of all the commentators. He and Australian Bernard Tomic (still just 19) are the consensus break-out picks for 2012.

That is to say, a new tennis season is upon us, rising in the East, and where the year to unfold may already be read in the sky.

The first tourneys are under way, scattered across Asia Pacific as the players swarm hemispherically 'round Australia in preparation for the year's first Slam in a week's time. ANd those tourneys are telling us what to expect for this year.

If I had written a week ago of the prospects for this year, I would have rated Nole as the likely year end #1 with Roger and Rafa each contending at the Slams. I put Roger back up with Rafa because he tore through the nobody-cares fall calendar, including demolishing Rafa in the World Tour FInals.

But I also would have said I see room for breakthroughs this year, and I would have pegged Tsonga, Murray, and Del Potro as the most likely. I also would have bet on Milos Raonic and Alex Dolgopolov breaking into the top ten.

Fate has reached out through this first week of tennis to confirm her intentions: At the Doha tournament, Gael Monfils took out Rafa, and then Jo Wilfred Tsonga took out Gael in the finals.
In Brisbane, Andy Murray knocked out Dolgoplov in the final. And in Chennai, Milos Raonic took out top tenners Almagro and Tipsarevic en route to the title.

Expect it: big years are coming for Tsonga and Murray in terms of contending at Slams, and from Milos and Dolgopolov in terms of breaking into the top tier.

As for The Great Oz: I just don't know. I think perhaps the only player who can take out Djokovic there might be Murray- the only man who really doesn't fear him. I would say, I expect Nole, Murray or Roger to win. Would not be shocked to see Rafa or Tsonga in the finals, but don't think they'll win.

Of course, other players to keep an eye on, as always, include David Ferrer (the invisible man), Thomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and youngster Australian Bernard Tomic. And yesterday Del potro gave an interview claiming he is at his peak preparation and condition for the Slam this year. So lots of cool stuff going on.
Don't look behind the curtain.

UPDATE: Murray hired Lendl as his new coach. How cool is that? Their games are nothing alike, but they have one thing in common: each broke into Slam finals and stalled, losing several in a row. Lendl went on to win MANY (7?) as a late bloomer. Can Andy?

UPDATER: Murray is often called the best player never to have won a Slam. I always thought that couldn't be true. Surely in the history of tennis there were better players that had never won Slams. Nope. By just about any standard I could think to check, mainly, number of tournaments won, number of Masters won, number of Slam finals and semis, Murray is easily the best player never to have won a Slam. Cedric Pioline, David Nalbandian and Todd Martin won far fewer tournaments, for example. Vitas Gerulitis won a Slam (who knew?) Give that Murray has an amazing record in finals outside of Slams, and a pretty good record against the Big Three outside of Slams, you have to think he's going to win one.

Jumping on the Vagabond Zeitgeist Bandwagon, here's SI's look at best retired non-Slam winners:

Out of their picks, Marcelos Rios, who was briefly #1, comes closest to Murray's achievements, but Murray still wins out by most metrics other than ranking.

BLOGGER'S ADDENDUM: With his trophy this week, Milos moves up to world 25. This will (I think) make him the first ever Canadian man seeded at a Grand Slam singles tournament.

The Headliners
This year began with 3 storylines worth watching, but after 3 of the 4 majors have played out, two fizzled and one grew to epic proportions. The diminishing stories were the return of Del Potro and emergence of young guns, Raonic, Harrison, Tomic and Dolgopolov.

But the story of the year, without a doubt, is Novak Djokovic who has turned in one of the great seasons in tennis history, complete with 5 straight championship match wins over Rafael Nadal, on hard courts, clay and grass. Nole has only lost twice this season, once in possibly the match of the year in the French semis to Federer, and once last week when he quit in the Cincinnati finals to Andy Murray citing a shoulder injury.
He is, possibly flirting with Johnny Mac's 1984 campaign, which went something like 80-odd wins and 3 or 4 losses (sorry, no easy internet connection at the cottage, so stats are from memory). If he wins the USO, compiling 3 Slams in a season, it will be up there in the list of great seasons in post-Laver times (Fed had 3 Slams, a 4th Slam Final, a Year End Championship and about 5 losses in 2005 or 2006. Fed has actually hit the 3 Slams and a Final mark 3 times! Last year, Rafa won 3 Slams but had somewhere close to 10 losses).

By the way, I always liked Novak and found his antics pretty funny. The more exposure that he gets, the more sick I am of seeing him take his shirt off and flex.

So…
your favourite for this years US Open, hands down, Novak Djokovic.

Then you have Rafa. What to make of the bumpicking baseliner? After shocking clay court beatdowns to Novak in two straight Masters tournaments in the spring, he resumed his traditional place in the French Open's champion spot, only to lose convincingly to Novak at WImbledon. THere is no doubt Novak is in Rafa's head much as Rafa has been for so long in Federer's (one interesting difference: Rafa admits it, Fed continues to pretend not to notice).

Rafa has had a shitty hardcore summer so far. But he's clearly changing his tactics again, looking to regain the aggressive, offensive form that he took to the USOpen trophy last year. Its so hard to count Rafa out in a Slam, but right now he does not go into this tournament with the other players shaking as he has for the last few years. That alone will cost him a few points here and there.

Newly demoted #3 Roger Federer keeps telling everyone he's happy with his game, and after over a year with his new coach (former Sampras aide) Paul Anacone, he does look good. Except when he doesn't. And it only has to happen once a tournament. As long as Federer doesn't run into someone having a career day, he's winning, but he seems to be running into players-at-their-best a LOT lately. Like to Soderling at the French last year, then Berdych at Wimbledon. After a very tight French Open loss to Rafa this year, Fed lost to a sizzling Tsonga at Wimbledon, then AGAIN to Tsonga playing one of the greatest matches I've ever seen in Montreal, and AGAIN to a hot Berdych in Cincinnati. There are seven matches to a Slam trophy and it seems to me that somewhere in there Fed will face someone having a great day. Fed is having a hard time finding that level.

Still, he's doing better than Andy Murray. After getting blown out in Novak's Oz coming out party, Murray has been showing up at the Slams, making decent semifinals runs, then disappearing for all other tournaments. We were ready to forget about MAndy altogether until… he won Cincinnati, knocking out the unbeatable Novak in the finals just last week.

The Pretenders

There are three or four players right now that could be outsider shots at a USO title, or at least finals: Jo-Willy Tsonga, who is finally getting some consistent health and showing that when he's on, he can match up with anyone in the world. He has a flat out beautiful game, his victory over Fed at Wimbledon was stellar, but his performance in Montreal was just magic.

Then there's DelPotro. DelPotro won the 2009 USOpen, beating both Rafa and Fed, then took a year off with wrist problems. His return this year was a terrific story, a constantly upwards trajectory, beating several top tenners convincingly, then taking a set off the (then undefeated in 2011) Novak at the French and fighting Rafa to what was essentially a draw at Wimbledon (losing out by the barest of margins in tiebreaks). Most of the tennis world expected the summer hardcourts to be where he'd take the next step, alas, its been a step backwards. He's had a few straight lacklustre losses, not great prep for New York. But he is a champion, and one with more effortless power and natural offense than anyone on tour.

Our third dark horse is Mardy Fish. The stoner underachiever from the Fed-Roddick generation finally got off the munchies, dropped about twenty pounds, and rose for the first time into the top ten. This summer, he's been playing the best tennis of his life. He's never made it past a Slam quarters, but he's never played like this before. His serve is lights out and he may be the best volleyer on tour right now.

If I were to force one more contender out it would be Berdych, who has shown some signs of life this summer after a major let down following last years Wimbledon finals.

The Draw and Matches

Semifinals line up as Novak v Fed and Murray v Rafa. Remember that Fed knocked Novak out of the French, and Murray has twice beaten Rafa at hardcourt Slams.

Fed has by far the toughest draw overall, Rafa's is a cakewalk.

Quarterfinals line up as
Novak vs Berdych
Fed vs Tsonga or Fish
Rafa vs David Ferrer
Murray vs Robin Soderling.

Great match-ups, real and potential:
First round:
Ryan Harrison, the very promising young American against the formerly very promising young Croat Marin Cilic.
Nikolay Davydenko vs recent Rafa-slayer Ivan Dodig
Grigor Dmitrov vs Gael Monfils
Mikhail Youzhny vs Ernest "Hooker Lover" Gulbis

After that, we look forward to:
Federer vs Brazillian Boy Ball Basher Bellucci in the 2nd rnd
Australia's Future Top Tenner Bernard Tomic vs American Future Top Tenner Harrison in the 2nd
Gilles Simon vs Del Potro (3rd)
Murray vs The Other Swiss Stan Wawrinka in the 3rd
Gasquet vs Dolgopolov in the 3rd

Then we get some doozies the best of the 4th round include:
Djokovic/Gasquet
Berdych/Monfils
Tsonga/ FIsh (MATCH OF THE FIRST WEEK!)
Soderling/DelPotro
Wawrinka/Murray
Ernest Gulbis or Jurgen Melzer vs Rafa in the 4th

For whats its worth: I have Tsonga over Fish, and Fed over Tsonga.
I have DelPo over Simon, SOderling, Murray and Rafa. Crazy, no? Yeah, I'm nuts that way.
I have Fed over Nole, and a Fed/DelPotro 2009 rematch.

WHAT SAY YOU??

The Women:
Kim Clijsters is out with an injury. Everybody else sucks except Serena Williams. Caroline "I Can't Believe She's #1" Wozniaki has been playing awful. Maria Sharapova has been alright, but she's got a bad shoulder and bad serve that will be murdered if she faces Serena. Serena is ranked, like 30th, since her injury layoff, but that is just bad news for the upper seeds who have to face her early.

Lets tennis!