Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

That is to say, a new tennis season is upon us, rising in the East, and where the year to unfold may already be read in the sky.

The first tourneys are under way, scattered across Asia Pacific as the players swarm hemispherically 'round Australia in preparation for the year's first Slam in a week's time. ANd those tourneys are telling us what to expect for this year.

If I had written a week ago of the prospects for this year, I would have rated Nole as the likely year end #1 with Roger and Rafa each contending at the Slams. I put Roger back up with Rafa because he tore through the nobody-cares fall calendar, including demolishing Rafa in the World Tour FInals.

But I also would have said I see room for breakthroughs this year, and I would have pegged Tsonga, Murray, and Del Potro as the most likely. I also would have bet on Milos Raonic and Alex Dolgopolov breaking into the top ten.

Fate has reached out through this first week of tennis to confirm her intentions: At the Doha tournament, Gael Monfils took out Rafa, and then Jo Wilfred Tsonga took out Gael in the finals.
In Brisbane, Andy Murray knocked out Dolgoplov in the final. And in Chennai, Milos Raonic took out top tenners Almagro and Tipsarevic en route to the title.

Expect it: big years are coming for Tsonga and Murray in terms of contending at Slams, and from Milos and Dolgopolov in terms of breaking into the top tier.

As for The Great Oz: I just don't know. I think perhaps the only player who can take out Djokovic there might be Murray- the only man who really doesn't fear him. I would say, I expect Nole, Murray or Roger to win. Would not be shocked to see Rafa or Tsonga in the finals, but don't think they'll win.

Of course, other players to keep an eye on, as always, include David Ferrer (the invisible man), Thomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and youngster Australian Bernard Tomic. And yesterday Del potro gave an interview claiming he is at his peak preparation and condition for the Slam this year. So lots of cool stuff going on.
Don't look behind the curtain.

UPDATE: Murray hired Lendl as his new coach. How cool is that? Their games are nothing alike, but they have one thing in common: each broke into Slam finals and stalled, losing several in a row. Lendl went on to win MANY (7?) as a late bloomer. Can Andy?

UPDATER: Murray is often called the best player never to have won a Slam. I always thought that couldn't be true. Surely in the history of tennis there were better players that had never won Slams. Nope. By just about any standard I could think to check, mainly, number of tournaments won, number of Masters won, number of Slam finals and semis, Murray is easily the best player never to have won a Slam. Cedric Pioline, David Nalbandian and Todd Martin won far fewer tournaments, for example. Vitas Gerulitis won a Slam (who knew?) Give that Murray has an amazing record in finals outside of Slams, and a pretty good record against the Big Three outside of Slams, you have to think he's going to win one.

Jumping on the Vagabond Zeitgeist Bandwagon, here's SI's look at best retired non-Slam winners:

Out of their picks, Marcelos Rios, who was briefly #1, comes closest to Murray's achievements, but Murray still wins out by most metrics other than ranking.

Normally the period between the Australian Open and March is a wasteland on the tennis calendar, the more frustrating because, unlike the even shorter offseason in December, they get us all riled up with the Australian Open warm-up tourneys, then the Slam, then... nothing. A bunch of rinky dink events that the top players routinely skip before things really roll for the year with the mini-hardcourt season in March and on to the clay season of April and May.

The mini hardcourt season of course features two American Masters 1000 events (ie the next most prestigious after the Grand Slams and end of year Championships). The first is at Indian Wells which starts tomorrow, then we go to Key Biscayne, best known as the coming out tournaments for Andre Agassi and Bacon O'Rourke (and the hardcourt coming-out of back-then clay specialist Rafa Nadal).

Where was I? Oh yes, tenn9is wasteland. But things were different this year. There was game afoot, big game.
Here, a summary of what we've been watching:

Another Game for MEELOSH: The Canadian kid impressed at the Australian Open, and has not let up. Since then he reached his first final, and won it, against top tenner Fernando Verdasco. The next week he beat Verdasco AGAIN in the first round (Verdasco had some wicked sour grapes and said he looked forward to playing Milos on clay...poor Nando!). Then Milos took out top twentyer Mardy Fish and gave Andy Roddick EVERYTHING he could handle in the tourney final. Meanwhile, the slightly older Alexander Dolgopolov (hereafter The Dog) continued his Aussie Open roll with some great clay tournaments, losing only to big names like David Ferrer. So we have here two new names who showed BIG promise at Australia and have since shown they are serious. Milos has rocketed up the rankings from about 140 at Australia to top 30s just a few weeks later. But he's clearly playing at a top ten level.

DelPo's comeback: One of the biggest stories entering this year was whether big man Juan Martin Del Potro could return to the elite level as a challenger to Rafa and Rog after a year off with wrist problems. Well, DelPo hasn't had as big wins as Milos, but he just won his first tournament since his comeback, and he has shot up something like 300 ranking points in a month, which MUST be an all-tim record.

Roger and... Nole?: So Djokovic beat Roger at the USO. Then Roger won a few times at smaller tournaments. Then Djokovic beat Roger SOUNDLY at Oz... last week they caught up at a mid-level tournament and by all accounts, Roger had no answers as Nole took another match over him. Is this a trend? Are Rafa and Nole now the real top two?

Rafa, We Hardly Knew Ya: Rafa, remember, left Oz with a loss to David Ferrer and a new leg injury. That makes 5 out of the last 8 Slams Rafa has skipped our lost with (according to him) injuries. What does this bode for his future? Ummm. Not good things. If your body can't hold it together when you're young (he's just 24!), it doesn't get better. Which is why I make the bold prediction NOW, that Fed will win Wimbledon. I believe Rafa will roll through the clay season as always, but the toll of winning every tournament is going to leave him limping in to London, and a wounded dog for the summer. I don't think anyone else is at the level of grass to take down Rog. By the way, with Nole's recent upswing, he represents, along with the currently high-flying David Ferrer a new and serious threat to Rafa on clay. Rafa will be the big favourite in every clay tournament this year, but I used to believe only Rog and Soderling had an outside chance to knock him off. I think Ferrer and Nole are there now too.

This week, we kick off the Real Season at Indian Wells, and man, could it get any better? Rafa returns, Nole and Roger are in the same half of the draw, Murray is back from his Oz meltdown, DelPo, Milos, the Dog...

Get ready! Its coming!