Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

That is to say, a new tennis season is upon us, rising in the East, and where the year to unfold may already be read in the sky.

The first tourneys are under way, scattered across Asia Pacific as the players swarm hemispherically 'round Australia in preparation for the year's first Slam in a week's time. ANd those tourneys are telling us what to expect for this year.

If I had written a week ago of the prospects for this year, I would have rated Nole as the likely year end #1 with Roger and Rafa each contending at the Slams. I put Roger back up with Rafa because he tore through the nobody-cares fall calendar, including demolishing Rafa in the World Tour FInals.

But I also would have said I see room for breakthroughs this year, and I would have pegged Tsonga, Murray, and Del Potro as the most likely. I also would have bet on Milos Raonic and Alex Dolgopolov breaking into the top ten.

Fate has reached out through this first week of tennis to confirm her intentions: At the Doha tournament, Gael Monfils took out Rafa, and then Jo Wilfred Tsonga took out Gael in the finals.
In Brisbane, Andy Murray knocked out Dolgoplov in the final. And in Chennai, Milos Raonic took out top tenners Almagro and Tipsarevic en route to the title.

Expect it: big years are coming for Tsonga and Murray in terms of contending at Slams, and from Milos and Dolgopolov in terms of breaking into the top tier.

As for The Great Oz: I just don't know. I think perhaps the only player who can take out Djokovic there might be Murray- the only man who really doesn't fear him. I would say, I expect Nole, Murray or Roger to win. Would not be shocked to see Rafa or Tsonga in the finals, but don't think they'll win.

Of course, other players to keep an eye on, as always, include David Ferrer (the invisible man), Thomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and youngster Australian Bernard Tomic. And yesterday Del potro gave an interview claiming he is at his peak preparation and condition for the Slam this year. So lots of cool stuff going on.
Don't look behind the curtain.

UPDATE: Murray hired Lendl as his new coach. How cool is that? Their games are nothing alike, but they have one thing in common: each broke into Slam finals and stalled, losing several in a row. Lendl went on to win MANY (7?) as a late bloomer. Can Andy?

UPDATER: Murray is often called the best player never to have won a Slam. I always thought that couldn't be true. Surely in the history of tennis there were better players that had never won Slams. Nope. By just about any standard I could think to check, mainly, number of tournaments won, number of Masters won, number of Slam finals and semis, Murray is easily the best player never to have won a Slam. Cedric Pioline, David Nalbandian and Todd Martin won far fewer tournaments, for example. Vitas Gerulitis won a Slam (who knew?) Give that Murray has an amazing record in finals outside of Slams, and a pretty good record against the Big Three outside of Slams, you have to think he's going to win one.

Jumping on the Vagabond Zeitgeist Bandwagon, here's SI's look at best retired non-Slam winners:

Out of their picks, Marcelos Rios, who was briefly #1, comes closest to Murray's achievements, but Murray still wins out by most metrics other than ranking.

Normally the period between the Australian Open and March is a wasteland on the tennis calendar, the more frustrating because, unlike the even shorter offseason in December, they get us all riled up with the Australian Open warm-up tourneys, then the Slam, then... nothing. A bunch of rinky dink events that the top players routinely skip before things really roll for the year with the mini-hardcourt season in March and on to the clay season of April and May.

The mini hardcourt season of course features two American Masters 1000 events (ie the next most prestigious after the Grand Slams and end of year Championships). The first is at Indian Wells which starts tomorrow, then we go to Key Biscayne, best known as the coming out tournaments for Andre Agassi and Bacon O'Rourke (and the hardcourt coming-out of back-then clay specialist Rafa Nadal).

Where was I? Oh yes, tenn9is wasteland. But things were different this year. There was game afoot, big game.
Here, a summary of what we've been watching:

Another Game for MEELOSH: The Canadian kid impressed at the Australian Open, and has not let up. Since then he reached his first final, and won it, against top tenner Fernando Verdasco. The next week he beat Verdasco AGAIN in the first round (Verdasco had some wicked sour grapes and said he looked forward to playing Milos on clay...poor Nando!). Then Milos took out top twentyer Mardy Fish and gave Andy Roddick EVERYTHING he could handle in the tourney final. Meanwhile, the slightly older Alexander Dolgopolov (hereafter The Dog) continued his Aussie Open roll with some great clay tournaments, losing only to big names like David Ferrer. So we have here two new names who showed BIG promise at Australia and have since shown they are serious. Milos has rocketed up the rankings from about 140 at Australia to top 30s just a few weeks later. But he's clearly playing at a top ten level.

DelPo's comeback: One of the biggest stories entering this year was whether big man Juan Martin Del Potro could return to the elite level as a challenger to Rafa and Rog after a year off with wrist problems. Well, DelPo hasn't had as big wins as Milos, but he just won his first tournament since his comeback, and he has shot up something like 300 ranking points in a month, which MUST be an all-tim record.

Roger and... Nole?: So Djokovic beat Roger at the USO. Then Roger won a few times at smaller tournaments. Then Djokovic beat Roger SOUNDLY at Oz... last week they caught up at a mid-level tournament and by all accounts, Roger had no answers as Nole took another match over him. Is this a trend? Are Rafa and Nole now the real top two?

Rafa, We Hardly Knew Ya: Rafa, remember, left Oz with a loss to David Ferrer and a new leg injury. That makes 5 out of the last 8 Slams Rafa has skipped our lost with (according to him) injuries. What does this bode for his future? Ummm. Not good things. If your body can't hold it together when you're young (he's just 24!), it doesn't get better. Which is why I make the bold prediction NOW, that Fed will win Wimbledon. I believe Rafa will roll through the clay season as always, but the toll of winning every tournament is going to leave him limping in to London, and a wounded dog for the summer. I don't think anyone else is at the level of grass to take down Rog. By the way, with Nole's recent upswing, he represents, along with the currently high-flying David Ferrer a new and serious threat to Rafa on clay. Rafa will be the big favourite in every clay tournament this year, but I used to believe only Rog and Soderling had an outside chance to knock him off. I think Ferrer and Nole are there now too.

This week, we kick off the Real Season at Indian Wells, and man, could it get any better? Rafa returns, Nole and Roger are in the same half of the draw, Murray is back from his Oz meltdown, DelPo, Milos, the Dog...

Get ready! Its coming!

The Finals Match
Anyone else wondering about the weird way Murray seemed to resent his box (including dude's mom!), constantly sniping at them, giving nasty looks, and shouting “Shut the F up!”?

There could be a very strange familial relationship/ motivation here that is giving negative pressure to Murray. Everyone always speaks of how the pressure of his country overwhelms him. I think that misses the target. I have a feeling there’s a family dynamic that he is carrying poorly, and that he will need to grow up and shed to play freely.

Just a theory, but there’s something going on there- I’ve never seen a player disrespect his own people like that, certainly not in a Slam final.

On the tennis: Nole was brilliant against Fed and well, hard to say he was brilliant against Murry because he really wasn’t tested. Murray just flat out did not compete, but Djokovic more than held up his side of the bargain.

HISTORY

I believe this is the most important Slam in some years. At the top, we had a no Fed, no Rafa final for the first Grand Slam in 3 years! I do think the Fed-al stranglehold has been broken for good. Rafa may well sweep the clay season, and one of them may well win Wimbledon. But on hardcourts, they will no longer be shoe-ins. For 3 years, every Slam generates excitement among fans that THIS time there are real challengers to the Big Two. And we're always wrong. This AO it seemed like there was no question but that Rafa, winner of three straight Slams, or Fed, winner of 4 of his last 5 tournaments, who walloped Nole and Rafa at the Masters Finals, would win. Not only did neither make the finals, but both Murray and Nole exhibited tennis at this tournament that can rival Rafa or Fed's- if not their best, at least their B+ games.

So there is shifting at the top among the True Slam Contenders. The next level, the Fake Slam Contenders, holds together: Soderling, Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer... but Del Potro has shown he could return to this group- or even skip right over them, very soon- provided his wrist holds up! B
But below that level, we've got some new and exciting names and faces. We will see at least a couple of Raonic, Dolgopolov, Tomic, Nishikori, or Dmitrov breaking into the top twenty over the next few months. The second Post New Balls generation is arrived! Give them a year, and some will break into the Fake Slam Contenders group.

The rankings are out! The rankings are out!
The rankings are out! The rankings are out!

1) Rog and Nole are separated by razor thin margins
2) Same with Soda and Muzza
3) Ferrer is 6, Melzer is 10, Wawrinka to 14, Tsonga to 18, Nalbandian to 19
4) Dolgopolov to 32! We will be seeing a lot more Dolgopolov!
5) Davydenko out of the top 32- no seed protection=dangerous floater for Rafa in particular
6) Nishikori up 12 to 70, Berankis up 22! to 73, Dmitrov up 20 to 86 (all outside Masters main draws still)
7) Milos Raonic up 58 spaces to 94!!
8) Fernando Gonzalez is almost out of the top 100

Next?
We have a quiet couple months, some smaller tournaments where we can watch our newcomers (Raonic has made it through the qualifiers in Johanesburg as we speak), await more results for Del Potro, and catch a glimpse of the stars at their choice backwaters.

Then we hit end of February and March with the two big American hardourt Masters in Indian Wells and Key Biscayne- could be some good tennis there. Key Biscayne is better known as Bacon O'Rourke's tournament.
Then, like Howard Dean, we move into the clay season. The only question is whether anyone can stop Rafa from a sweep. You'd have to guess that last years success is unrepeatable simply because it was so unprecedented and extreme. The next two best clay courters in the world by the way are Federer, Nole, and Ferrer, so our biggest names could be tussling in the Spring.

My hope is that by the French Open, Del Potro, Ranoic and Dolgopolov will all have some wins and credibility under their belts, and Djokovic will show he is up for the Rafa challenge on the dirt.

There are individuals so great that their Nobel Prize acclamations invest the prize itself with weight (e.g. Einstein, Kipling). On the other hands there are winners whose CVs are headlined by the name Nobel (Jimmy Carter).

Just so, their were superheroes whose inclusion in the Justice League created that crime-fighting units stature (eg Batman, Superman) and others for whom their association with the League is really all that connects them to the superhero upper-echelon (eg Elastic Man).

So it is with the Slams. 3 of them have a kind of prestige and magnitude that they create the mythos with which we invest the concept of the Grand Slam. Then there's the Australian Open. Nevertheless, the runty Slam is still a Slam. The roster of players is exhaustive, the gauntlet the same as in Paris, Wimbledon and NY.

TWO CHALLENGERS RISE
It seems to me that for several years now, tennis has been dominated by the 1st Post-New Balls Generation: Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Monfils, Simon, Gasquet, Youzhny. With a couple isolated exceptions, like del potro, no new blood has emerged in several years. The newcomers from the top ten have actually been veterans like Soderling and Berdych who have elevated their games. The rest of the main players are holdovers from the New Balls group: Federer, Roddick, Davydenko, Nalbandian... Nadal is part of the PNBG age-wise, but he came up much sooner.

So it is that this Open represents a turning point in the history of the game, because I think we've seen the breakthrough the 2nd PNBG cohort: Dolgopolov (22), Raonic (20), and Tomic (19). These characters have been on the radar for the last couple years, germinating, or festering, or whatever metaphor you like. Now they'e sprouting. Or something.

Nature has tired of waiting for Nole and Murray to take the mountain top from Nadal and Federer. She has sent new challengers.

Here is what I see: First of all, Milos Raonic will be the greatest Canadian male singles player ever. Bank on it. This guy has top twenty written all over him. Massive first serve- he led the tournament in aces and speed. Massive second servce- he was hitting some at 125 mph! He hits a BOOMING forehand, moves very well and has a SWEET net game. He may turn out to be the most prolific net player among the elite- but I'm getting ahead of myself.
The guy has that big, awkward look of a young man still filling into his frame. Which means he is going to get better coordination and more power. He stays totally calm on court and didn't seem awed by the moment at all. I pick him as the golden boy of this threesome.

Second, Dolgopolov. This guy has been a comer for a few years now- threatening to break out then disappearing. Apparently he has some serious health issues that leave him pretty weak for some tournaments. His dad was a coach, so he is just as comfortable as can be around the court and the tour. He took out Soderling, the #4 player in the world in the quarterfinals and it was awesome. Although I think Raonic will have the best game in the long run, Dolgopolov has the most exciting. I don't remember seeing so many drop-your-jaw WOW! shots since Fed of 05-06. This guy may not have the consistency to get to the top ten, but he is going to be a Nalbandian like danger to the top players. He just simply chewed up the power of maybe the biggest power hitter on tour. It didn't bother him a bit. He has huge variety, lots of spin shots, and some incredible power of his own for a little guy.

Finally, Tomic. The much hyped Aussie. All I've really heard about him is that he's a dickhead. But he's young. Apparently he plays a tricky game, a la Murray. Haven't seen him, so I can't say much.

So, Raonic, Dolgopolov and Tomic: remember these names for 2011, we could be seeing a changing of the guard in the near future!
Update:
I can already hear you protesting Greg Rusedski! Don't talk to me about Greg Rusedski. The fact that he made #4 in the world is proof of what a weak era Sampras dominated. And he was British then.

The Happy Slam!
You HAVE to watch this. This totally made me a fan of Kim.

The Happy Dance
Newcomer Andrea Petkovic has brought a new innovation to the woman's game: the victory dance (known in Australia as the Waltzin Matilda)

Everything else you need to know
As we enter the quarterfinals, here's where we're at:
Murray and Nadal are the two hottest players, and they are set to collide in the semis. Murray should be able to knock Dolgopolov off his cloud, and Nadal will own Ferrer. They both have been demolishing opponents, but Murray's been demolishing QUALITY. Should be an epic match.
On the other side, Federer and Djokovic have some serious work in front of them: tonight Fed draws an extremely impressive new-form Stan Wawrinka (Federer's Olympic gold doubles partner!) while Nole gets Wimbledon finalist and nemesis Thomas Berdych.

OK, what are you waiting for? Go watch some tennis!

If you can't be arsed with the first week of a major, this is for you. Cause Week Two is here and its time to get a little Wimblenutty. What makes a tournament great: at least three serious contenders. A massive breakthrough or two. Something special, somewhere, some way. And of course, some great tennis.

The men's side has it all. Right now, Rafa, Roger, Murray and Soderling, you could pick any of these pretty legitimately, and you've got strong dark horses in Tsonga, Djoker, and Berdych. Then there's Lu! Lu who? Exactly. Lu, #82 or so in the world,, first ever Taiwanese anywhere near this far in a Slam, and beater of Andy Roddick. Lu. Who knew?

I said in the early rounds, that if Roger and Rafa progressed, plus one other contender, we'd have some real tension growing. And just about all the potential candidates are doing their jobs. I had mentioned Hewitt and Querrey as possible dark horses too, but they were knocked out by Djokovic and Murray respectively. In other words, this is as good as it could get. Well, Roddick could have been here, but then where would Lu be? So seven of the final eight are stars I picked before the tournament. That makes for a great final week!

Then there was the 11 hour Isner-Mahur match, with a fifth set longer than the previous longest match ever. What was it, 70-68 in the fifth? Best line on Letterman's Top Ten as read by sudden celeb John Isner: “We’ve been playing so long, I’ve forgotten — am I Isner or Mahut?”

All through it, we've had some brilliant tennis from Soderling perhaps overall, but Murra, Rafa and Roger at times too.

On the women's side, upsets have been the order of the week. Venus, OUT, Clisters, OUT. Only Serena and that crazy chick remain among the big names. Serena looks awesome, and she gets some total no name in the semis.

Today:
Fed v Berdych: Berdy was one of those picked as the "next Fed" a few years back. Huge talent, huge big hitting game. Never lived up to his potential, lots of mental breakdowns. Until this year. He beat Fed in a thriller a couple months ago, and made the semis of the French. So this should be a great match.

Djokovic vs Lu: Well, who knows?

Murray vs Tsonga: the defensive master against an all out offense machine. If Tsonga has his best day, he wins. If he is less than perfect, he loses.

Nadal vs Soderling: A similar dynamic to Murray/Tsonga. If Soderling makes his serves and hits his lines he has the power to blow Nadal off the court, and the height to be untroubled by Nadal's high bounces. Look for Nadal to be more aggressive than usual, going for winners, to counter Sod's power. They also have a great history: in '07 they fought a brilliant 5 setter here that included a Sod mimmicking of Nadal's ass picking and time wasting. It was not well received. Then last year, The Sod knocked Rafa out of the French, for Rafa's first ever loss there. This year, Rafa demolished Soda Pop in the French Finals.
This is your match of the day!

Great tournament, this Wimbledon. Great tennis-ball game.