Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

As rain delays play on some of the more uninteresting Slam quarterfinal matchups I've ever seen, let's take a stroll down memory lane by examining a case of a a great athlete's spiritual resurrection. Ivan Lendl gets little love these days, what with the Macenroe brothers dominating TV commentary, constantly exhuming the careers of Borg and Connors and, like Stalin, trying to write a nemesis from the history books.

But Lendl lives!

In one Rafael Nadal...

I'll state at the outset that Rafa is already more accomplished than Ivan, but there are some strong and varied parallels in their career. What got me started on this was wondering whether Rafa had any forebears in his situation of relative-surface dominance. This brought me to Lendl.

Each of these two players was considered, for a time at least, as the best player of his era. Each was also considered one of the greatest clay court players of all time.

Rafa fans are quite sensitive to the idea that Rafa is a great clay courter, as if saying this somehow is an insult to how great he is on all surfaces. The thing is, he's just not an all time great on hard courts and grass. His record on those surfaces is not just well below Federer and Sampras- its below Connors, Macenroe, Edberg, Becker, Agassi- and now, just about equal to the younger Djokovic.

Which is kind of an aside to help me get to differences: Lendl never got his white whale. Rafa did. The career slam, a validation that one time at least, Rafa was the greatest player in the world on each surface. Lendl's Wimbledon dream never came true- and he WAS a good grass player (2 finals and 5 semis), its not like he never had chances. (Contrast with Sampras who really really sucked at the French Open).
But Rafa's clay dominance, too is more complete and long lasting than Lendl's. Only Borg was in Rafa's class; Rafa's dominance at all tournaments is far more complete than Borg's, but I think Borg's clay competition was deeper: Gerulitis, Panneta, Connors (who won US Open on clay), Solomon... Rafa has had Fed, to be sure, but who beyond Fed has really been a clay court force during Rafa's career?

Back to Lendl. Lendl had something else in common with Rafa: they each led the wave of a new technology with new styles of play, and Rafa's really is an evolution of Lendl's.

Rafa has been called the killer of the serve and volley game. OK, that's an exaggeration, but his rise pretty much coincided with the disappearance of SandV as a competitive style at the very top levels.
Look at the grass wear patterns from Nadal's win over Berdych in 2010:

Compare to the wear in Borg and Macenroe's day:

(The change in Wimbledon grass to slow it down was a major part of it- Rafa's emergence coincided with the general trend in the game; he took advantage of it and made it the leading edge)
Lendl was in the same situation: he heralded the baseline basher era of Jimmy Arias, Becker, Agassi and Courier. Around 1990, we were hearing that the net game was doomed. Of course, that talk died down when Sampras became #1. Lendl was the first to combine the new graphite racquets, which allowed for more topspin and harder hitting without shattering the arm, with a new physicality. Lendly set a new standard for fitness on the tour at that time. As Rafa has set a new standard for physicality today with his bruising baseline game and extreme topspin (enabled by the superior strings most of today's players have adopted). How did Novak supplant Rafa at the top? By out-Rafa-ing Rafa. He runs fasters and chased down more balls. His rallies with Rafa are now out and out marathon, the ball arcing many feet above the net.

What's my point? Not much, really. Just some neat parallels. Unless... is there out there a Sampras to shortcut the Rafa era?

Here's Lendl in his prime. Note that SECOND SHOT by the returner- look familiar??

To all those lamenting the new Novak/Rafa dominance, and the fear of a tennis landscape devoid of creativity, all-court play, and offense, I say fear not! For each zig has within itself the seeds of its own zag, as sure as Borg gave way to McEnroe who gave way to Lendl and Wilander who gave way to Becker, Edberg and Sampras...

I've heard the baseliner lament over and over, and it never sticks. But if you're impatient next time Rafa and Novak are locked in a 40-stroke rally, check out some of this action, featuring three of the greatest serve and volleyers of all time. Its really a lost art right now; we always hear that serve and volleyers can't survive in today's slowed down surfaces, but I don't buy it. First of all, the racquet and strings today generate so much power that it more than compensates for a slower Wimbledon. Secondly, just look at these guys! No one today can volley anywhere near this level. Even Fed, the best volleyer in the top 20, or Rafa who would probably be second, have nowhere near the skills of these guys who pull off incredibly aggressive, deep pin-point shots against amazing pressure.

Enjoy! French Open preview coming soon!

When I was a kid, I remember there was a Superman clone bad- guy who was going to fight superman. And the cover of the comic said something about What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?
That's one of the toughest questions I've ever grappled with.
And practical.
Because it came to pass that the man who couldn't lose met on clay against the one and only Clay Monster. Novak had a 30 match win streak on the line, including an Australian Open and the first two hardcourt masters. He'd beaten Federer and Rafa multiple times during the streak. But that was on hard court. This was in Madrid, on clay, in Rafael Nadal's backyard. Not literally his backyard though.
Rafa had established his bona fides as the greatest clay courter in the eyes of most. Better than Borg, Lendl, or any others. He hadn't lost once last season, cleaning up at the 3 Masters Events, French Open. His streak had continued, with a win at the Monte Carlo Masters, which Nole had sat out.
So here was Nole's 2011 undefeated streak on the line against a man who hadn't lost on clay in two years.

The Reign of the Clay Monster is over.

NOvak won more definitively than he had beaten Rafa in the recent Indian Wells and Key Biscayne finals (that makes 3 straight Masters finals between these two- bit of a rivalry?). On the slow clay, the best returner in the game was all over Rafa's serve. Rafa had no answers for Novak. He out Rafa'd Rafa, running, grinding, and waiting for opportunities.

This clip shows the shot, maybe the point of the match. Rafa wins this, but you can see the feel of the relationship.

Then there's this version, with my new guest commentator:

Dig it.
Now, not to forget about some scrub named Federer he is pretty hot on clay right now too. He took apart Soderling in the quarters, and took a set off Rafa in the semis. He played high risk tennis, but was just a tad too inconsistent and lost in a close 3rd set.

So now the last of the clay Masters before Roland Garros. Rome. Again, Fed lands on Rafa's side, and they both face some tough competition. Nole and Murray or on the other side, each with cakewalks (well, maybe not, Nole gets Soderling next round). So Nole, who now has the best start to a season since MacEnroe's 42 win start to 1984, and he looks to pocket another couple before the finals. Fed demolished Tsonga yesterday, and draws Gasquet today, before possibly Berdych Friday, and Rafa Saturday.

If Nole takes this title, we have a new favourite for the French. Even if he falls, this clay season has gotten a lot more interesting, and Nole's case as the true #1 is looking really good.

Madrid Masters, 2pm Thursday

The Clay Monster vs The Tower of Tandil

Rafa puts his 2 year streak of clay perfection on the line against Juan Martin del Potro, the man who demolished him in the USO semis 2 years ago, before a year off to heal his wrist.

DelPotro's comeback this season has been spectacular, last week he won his first clay court tournament in two years with wins over clay powers Soderling and Verdasco. But those two worthies are as nothing next to the Beast that is Rafa.

On the undercard: Soderling vs Jo Willy
update
DelPo pulls out with a hip injury. Unsure if he'll be back for Rome next week or even Roland Garros. Horribly disappointing. Rafa gets a bye through the round of 16, then has a gimme in the quarters after Melzer eliminated from that section... which means that whichever of Fed/Tsonga or Soderling get through to the semis, they will be facing a fresh and foaming bull across the net.

Ulysses at Dusk, Federer Facing '09:

It little profits that an idle king,
By this still hearth, among these barren crags,
Match'd with an aged wife, I mete and dole
Unequal laws unto a savage race,
That hoard, and sleep, and feed, and know not me.
I cannot rest from travel: I will drink
Life to the lees: All times I have enjoy'd
Greatly, have suffer'd greatly, both with those
That loved me, and alone, on shore, and when
Thro' scudding drifts the rainy Hyades
Vext the dim sea: I am become a name;
For always roaming with a hungry heart
Much have I seen and known; cities of men
And manners, climates, councils, governments,
Myself not least, but honour'd of them all;
And drunk delight of battle with my peers,
Far on the ringing plains of windy Troy.

And oh yeah, the defending champion and World Number 1 is OUT OF WIMBLEDON. That's Rafa, if you are just coming to the sport due to love of this blog.

PART ONE: The Widening Gyre

The tennis world slowed down from 2004 to 2008. In the past, the tour was a wild and woolly place where new contenders sprang up at each grand slam, and sometimes with great showings at the Masters tournaments.
Then came Fed, and from 2004 to 2008, there were only 2 storylines: First, Would Federer continue his dominance? And then, starting in 2005, would Nadal catch up to Fed? Somehow, the answer to both was yes. Fed maintained, winning multiple Slams each year until '08, all the while Nadal slowly cutting into the awesome lead Fed had created in the rankings. Then it happened in '08, that Fed somehow maintained dominance over the Rest while being caught by Nadal who had a Federeresque year: while Fed finalled in ALL FOUR Grand Slams, winning the U.S. Open, Rafa took an accountants trick: he didn't start '08 in January as the rest of us do, but in the spring clay court season. Not a fiscal '08, but a Nadal '08, reeling off clay Masters titles, demolishing Roger at the French, winning Wimbledon in the Greatest Match Ever Played, Olympic Gold, summer hard court Masters shields (including Toronto, where I watched in person as he demolished still-rising Andy Murray in the quarters) and then a semifinal exit in the semis at the US. The Nadal '08 of course continued in '09 with his January Australian Open title.

So it was.
And in January, as Nadal's '08 was not quite done, the rest of us pondered, after four years, new storylines:
Now, could Nadal maintain dominance? Was Federer's time at the pinnacle done, would retirement follow soon? Could Nole and Murray compete with Nadal, for the top, and would Fed stay in that mix?

Then, another new story. As Nadal's 08 came to a close, with a 5th set breakdown by Federer to allow Nadal the Australian crown, with similar breakdowns against Nole and Murray in other tournaments through February and March, and, as the clay season dawned, we wondered not whether Federer could regain the top spot, but whether he could stay in the top three at all?

Now how quickly things have changed!
With Nadal's French Open exit, Federer's clay crown at long last, and decidedly-not-number-one showings from Nole and Murray, we are already onto a new set of storylines. Think of it: the tour was a settled place from 04-08. 08 Saw Nadal replace Federer in the dominator role, but not much else changed. Now in 09, things have happened fast:
*Nadal was an all-conquering force, until he was not, and now we wonder if he ever will be again. Chatter over the last weeks has been whether his knee injury was for real, or whether Rafa was simply emotionally battered by his wild ride and French devastation. Now the truth is known. The Wimbledon champion has withdrawn to heal.

*Just weeks ago, Fed was a spent force, a conquered hero, ready to retire with new bride and babe on the way. But like Ulysses, this hero refused to sail meekly into the night:
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

*Murray and Nole were crown princes, the Top Four was a sacrosanct circle admitting no other pretenders as contenders. Now, the gates lie open and there is no such neat distinction between these two and the field.

Part Two: The French and Wimbledon

I go along with the group-mind on what the French means for Federer: a last monkey off his back, I believe Federer will be as strong mentally as ever.
What no one seems to be paying attention to, though, is his actual tennis. Tennis is not Vulcan chess. It does require some body. And Fed's has returned. We saw it first in Madrid with his easy championship over a beaten-down Nadal, and it was confirmed in Paris. While Federer may never regain quite the form of '04-'07, the inconsistent, safe-hitting, second-serving Federer of '08 is gone. In the Paris finals, Federer made it through a second set tiebreak hitting only aces. Federer is drop-shotting, going for lines, attacking the net. This is the Federer he needs to be to beat Nadal at his peak.

But will we ever again see Nadal at his peak? I wrote after Madrid that Nadal no longer looked invulnerable. Like a dictatorship that opens a slight window of freedom for its people, this crack of light is all it takes for a starved mob to crash through. After 5 years in darkness, the ATP mob is ready to party. Robin Soderling showed it in Paris. Now, going into Wimbledon, Nadal faces yet more serious problems. Chronic knee tendonitis threatens not just his title defense (and thus the Number One ranking), but his career. How sad for tennis would it be if Nadal could never regain that form? If the epic Nadal-Fed finals were indeed in the past, as many thought, but it was FED who carried on?

Nole meanwhile has shown that his semifinal loss to Nadal in Madrid still weighs on him. If he can't recover mentally from that one match, top players will feast on him.

Murray had a strong showing at the French, and a win at the Queen's grass court tune-up event. He is telling everyone who listens that he can win Wimbledon, and perhaps he can, but, even if Nole looks weak, there are many other contenders looking strong: Juan Martin del Potro and Andy Roddick are knocking on the Big Four's door. Old warriors Haas and Safin, whose careers have never lived up to their potential due to injuries of the body and mind, now remind us of what was once seen in them. Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga threaten, and of course, we all want to know if RObin Soderling can continue his awesome new form. All of these players bear close watching in the two weeks to come.
Nadal is out, Nole is questionable, and Murray is surrounded by other barking dogs. But Federer, like the Dude, abides.
This we know. The rest we guess.

In the draw, Roddick has espcaped Federer's half. I expect a very strong showing from him. On grass, he is more than capable of taking down Nole and Murray.
We are set for Roddick/Murray in one semi, and Fed/Djoker in the other, if Nole should make it that far.

I will predict a Fed/Roddick third final, a third triumph, 6th Wimbledon and 15th Slam for Roger.

As for the women: Due to vicious seeding, Venus Williams, defending champion and 5 time Wimbledon winner, is in the 3rd hole. Serena, 2 time Wimbledon champ, is #2. French Open choker, 0 SLam winner, Dinara Safina is #1.
BUT, Venus and Serena are on opposite halves! My prediction: Venus over Dinara in one semis, and someone other than Serena representing the other half.

Some early matches to look out for:
Santoro vs Kiefer, a first round battle of aging wizards. Should be great fun.

Second round: del Potro vs Hewitt
Andy Murray vs Ernests Gulbis
A third aging wiz, Ferrero vs the winner of Santoro/Kiefer
Dr. Ivo vs Canuck Frankie Dancevic

Let's go enjoy some grass!