Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

We're through to the quarters, and we'll have at least two good ones: Federer is, as hoped, facing Juan Martin del Potro. Both are coming in to the match in top form. As is his wont, delPo has been improving with each round as that massive forehand finds its range. Federer is in full flight. He easily stopped Aussie teen Bernard Tomic to put THE END on the Story of the Tournament So Far.
In the other bottom halfer, Rafa faces #7 Thomas Berdych. Berdych ended his last match with a little crybaby episode against Nicolas Almagro for getting pegged at the net. He will be booed, and Rafa will be teed up to defend the Spanish honour. Nevertheless, Berdych has been playing well. He has the game, in theory, to trouble Rafa. I don't want to get my hopes up, because Berdych is a disapointer, but this COULD be a great match.

In the top half we have Djokovic as expected against David Ferrer. And Ferrer just keeps winning matches with no one talking about him. Ferrer won't beat Djokovic. The match will probably be boring, defensive vanilla tennis. But Ferrer will make Djokovic work. Like Limpy Lleyton Hewitt just did in the last round. So when Nole makes the semis, against Murray, he is going to be tired. Terrible game plan for Nole against Hewitt, playing pure defense against the guy who wrote the book on grind tennis. That was some excrutiatingly boring tennis and it
kept Djokovic on a blistering hot court for 3 hours.

Which brings us to the last match. In probably the upset of the tournament, #24 Kei Nishikori has just taken out dark horse contender #6 Jo Wilfred Tsonga in a 5-set barnburner of a match. Kei is one of the up and coming youngsters. While Raonic and Tomic had the Buzz coming in, Kei has been the most successful. Is he still being coached by Brad Gilbert? Murray has had an absolute walk through his draw, so he should get through Kei easily and in great fitness to take on Nole.

I think Fed is likeliest to be knocked off, then Rafa. I should probably give Ferrer more credit, but I just don't see him taking Nole out, I would even pick Kei over Murray first. Anyways, its almost a certainty that we'll have a Murray-Nole semi.

Two things I'd say about this tourney see far: we're seeing for the first time, a really consistent group join the Big Four: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro, Berdych. We can expect to see this group in Slam quarters from here on out, I think, and I wouldn't be shocked if Monfils joins that group.

Secondly, we are seeing the proof that Nishikori, Raonic, Tomic and maybe Dolgopolov are going to be solid second week contenders, giving us our first glimpse at the Heir Apparents to the current dynasty. Along with Del Potro, who is closer to their generation than to Murray-Nole-Rafa-Tsonga...

With the women, the good ones are advancing: Kvitova, Sharapova, Wozniacki, Clijsters and Azarenka. Serena was upset last night by Makarova, playing on an injured ankle. I think this will actually help Serena. She needed to get angry and start working harder to show these ladies who she is. I believe a hard working committed Serena can still beat anyone. But Kvitova and Clijsters certainly can beat her if she's not dedicated enough. Kvitova, Wozniacki and Sharapova are looking dominant, but I really don't like Sharapova's chances because her serve can be punished by the best players. The best match of the quarters will be defending champ Clijsters against Slamless #1 Wozniacki.

Tennis starts at 7 pm, and night matches are usually still on when we wake up. So watch some tennis!

I was going to write a more in depth analysis of the women's draw, including Serena's potential path to the finals and my alternative picks : French Open champ Na Li and Offensive-like-a-Williams Marion Bartoli.
But after two rounds, both Li and Bartoli are out, and Venus has withdrawn. So am I a crappy tennis shaman-guide? No. The women's tour is pathetic. The current #1 Caroline Wozniaki is pushed so hard as a marketing boon because she's almost pretty, though built like a horse, but she has a cringe-worthy personality, trying so hard to be the funny quick-witted star her handlers want her to be. I don't remember the last time she won a tournament, and I'm almost curious enough to look up for myself just how the hell she can still be #1. Then #2 is Vera "Why are my legs bludgeoned?" Zvonereva. I like her. She's smart, funny and has a hell of a game. But she's nuts. Remember her whipping her own legs with her racquet at the USO a few years ago? And tearing all her injury wraps off in frustration as she screamed and cried?
#3 is Maria Sharapova, who can play real tennis, has a head on her shoulders, and the heart of a champion. But her career was derailed by shoulder surgery and ever since then, the fact that she can win tournaments with a collegiate level serve is only evidence of the weakness of the woman's tour.
Samantha Stosur is a man, and Francesca Schiavone is an old man. Jankovic is a bitch and Ivanovic is hot. But they're not real champions.

The woman's tour IS Serena Williams, and when she's not there the champions list is bogus. We need some fresh blood.
Julia Goerges and Andrea Petcovik would be good ponies to hope for, also Christina McHale.

The Headliners
This year began with 3 storylines worth watching, but after 3 of the 4 majors have played out, two fizzled and one grew to epic proportions. The diminishing stories were the return of Del Potro and emergence of young guns, Raonic, Harrison, Tomic and Dolgopolov.

But the story of the year, without a doubt, is Novak Djokovic who has turned in one of the great seasons in tennis history, complete with 5 straight championship match wins over Rafael Nadal, on hard courts, clay and grass. Nole has only lost twice this season, once in possibly the match of the year in the French semis to Federer, and once last week when he quit in the Cincinnati finals to Andy Murray citing a shoulder injury.
He is, possibly flirting with Johnny Mac's 1984 campaign, which went something like 80-odd wins and 3 or 4 losses (sorry, no easy internet connection at the cottage, so stats are from memory). If he wins the USO, compiling 3 Slams in a season, it will be up there in the list of great seasons in post-Laver times (Fed had 3 Slams, a 4th Slam Final, a Year End Championship and about 5 losses in 2005 or 2006. Fed has actually hit the 3 Slams and a Final mark 3 times! Last year, Rafa won 3 Slams but had somewhere close to 10 losses).

By the way, I always liked Novak and found his antics pretty funny. The more exposure that he gets, the more sick I am of seeing him take his shirt off and flex.

So…
your favourite for this years US Open, hands down, Novak Djokovic.

Then you have Rafa. What to make of the bumpicking baseliner? After shocking clay court beatdowns to Novak in two straight Masters tournaments in the spring, he resumed his traditional place in the French Open's champion spot, only to lose convincingly to Novak at WImbledon. THere is no doubt Novak is in Rafa's head much as Rafa has been for so long in Federer's (one interesting difference: Rafa admits it, Fed continues to pretend not to notice).

Rafa has had a shitty hardcore summer so far. But he's clearly changing his tactics again, looking to regain the aggressive, offensive form that he took to the USOpen trophy last year. Its so hard to count Rafa out in a Slam, but right now he does not go into this tournament with the other players shaking as he has for the last few years. That alone will cost him a few points here and there.

Newly demoted #3 Roger Federer keeps telling everyone he's happy with his game, and after over a year with his new coach (former Sampras aide) Paul Anacone, he does look good. Except when he doesn't. And it only has to happen once a tournament. As long as Federer doesn't run into someone having a career day, he's winning, but he seems to be running into players-at-their-best a LOT lately. Like to Soderling at the French last year, then Berdych at Wimbledon. After a very tight French Open loss to Rafa this year, Fed lost to a sizzling Tsonga at Wimbledon, then AGAIN to Tsonga playing one of the greatest matches I've ever seen in Montreal, and AGAIN to a hot Berdych in Cincinnati. There are seven matches to a Slam trophy and it seems to me that somewhere in there Fed will face someone having a great day. Fed is having a hard time finding that level.

Still, he's doing better than Andy Murray. After getting blown out in Novak's Oz coming out party, Murray has been showing up at the Slams, making decent semifinals runs, then disappearing for all other tournaments. We were ready to forget about MAndy altogether until… he won Cincinnati, knocking out the unbeatable Novak in the finals just last week.

The Pretenders

There are three or four players right now that could be outsider shots at a USO title, or at least finals: Jo-Willy Tsonga, who is finally getting some consistent health and showing that when he's on, he can match up with anyone in the world. He has a flat out beautiful game, his victory over Fed at Wimbledon was stellar, but his performance in Montreal was just magic.

Then there's DelPotro. DelPotro won the 2009 USOpen, beating both Rafa and Fed, then took a year off with wrist problems. His return this year was a terrific story, a constantly upwards trajectory, beating several top tenners convincingly, then taking a set off the (then undefeated in 2011) Novak at the French and fighting Rafa to what was essentially a draw at Wimbledon (losing out by the barest of margins in tiebreaks). Most of the tennis world expected the summer hardcourts to be where he'd take the next step, alas, its been a step backwards. He's had a few straight lacklustre losses, not great prep for New York. But he is a champion, and one with more effortless power and natural offense than anyone on tour.

Our third dark horse is Mardy Fish. The stoner underachiever from the Fed-Roddick generation finally got off the munchies, dropped about twenty pounds, and rose for the first time into the top ten. This summer, he's been playing the best tennis of his life. He's never made it past a Slam quarters, but he's never played like this before. His serve is lights out and he may be the best volleyer on tour right now.

If I were to force one more contender out it would be Berdych, who has shown some signs of life this summer after a major let down following last years Wimbledon finals.

The Draw and Matches

Semifinals line up as Novak v Fed and Murray v Rafa. Remember that Fed knocked Novak out of the French, and Murray has twice beaten Rafa at hardcourt Slams.

Fed has by far the toughest draw overall, Rafa's is a cakewalk.

Quarterfinals line up as
Novak vs Berdych
Fed vs Tsonga or Fish
Rafa vs David Ferrer
Murray vs Robin Soderling.

Great match-ups, real and potential:
First round:
Ryan Harrison, the very promising young American against the formerly very promising young Croat Marin Cilic.
Nikolay Davydenko vs recent Rafa-slayer Ivan Dodig
Grigor Dmitrov vs Gael Monfils
Mikhail Youzhny vs Ernest "Hooker Lover" Gulbis

After that, we look forward to:
Federer vs Brazillian Boy Ball Basher Bellucci in the 2nd rnd
Australia's Future Top Tenner Bernard Tomic vs American Future Top Tenner Harrison in the 2nd
Gilles Simon vs Del Potro (3rd)
Murray vs The Other Swiss Stan Wawrinka in the 3rd
Gasquet vs Dolgopolov in the 3rd

Then we get some doozies the best of the 4th round include:
Djokovic/Gasquet
Berdych/Monfils
Tsonga/ FIsh (MATCH OF THE FIRST WEEK!)
Soderling/DelPotro
Wawrinka/Murray
Ernest Gulbis or Jurgen Melzer vs Rafa in the 4th

For whats its worth: I have Tsonga over Fish, and Fed over Tsonga.
I have DelPo over Simon, SOderling, Murray and Rafa. Crazy, no? Yeah, I'm nuts that way.
I have Fed over Nole, and a Fed/DelPotro 2009 rematch.

WHAT SAY YOU??

The Women:
Kim Clijsters is out with an injury. Everybody else sucks except Serena Williams. Caroline "I Can't Believe She's #1" Wozniaki has been playing awful. Maria Sharapova has been alright, but she's got a bad shoulder and bad serve that will be murdered if she faces Serena. Serena is ranked, like 30th, since her injury layoff, but that is just bad news for the upper seeds who have to face her early.

Lets tennis!

If you can't be arsed with the first week of a major, this is for you. Cause Week Two is here and its time to get a little Wimblenutty. What makes a tournament great: at least three serious contenders. A massive breakthrough or two. Something special, somewhere, some way. And of course, some great tennis.

The men's side has it all. Right now, Rafa, Roger, Murray and Soderling, you could pick any of these pretty legitimately, and you've got strong dark horses in Tsonga, Djoker, and Berdych. Then there's Lu! Lu who? Exactly. Lu, #82 or so in the world,, first ever Taiwanese anywhere near this far in a Slam, and beater of Andy Roddick. Lu. Who knew?

I said in the early rounds, that if Roger and Rafa progressed, plus one other contender, we'd have some real tension growing. And just about all the potential candidates are doing their jobs. I had mentioned Hewitt and Querrey as possible dark horses too, but they were knocked out by Djokovic and Murray respectively. In other words, this is as good as it could get. Well, Roddick could have been here, but then where would Lu be? So seven of the final eight are stars I picked before the tournament. That makes for a great final week!

Then there was the 11 hour Isner-Mahur match, with a fifth set longer than the previous longest match ever. What was it, 70-68 in the fifth? Best line on Letterman's Top Ten as read by sudden celeb John Isner: “We’ve been playing so long, I’ve forgotten — am I Isner or Mahut?”

All through it, we've had some brilliant tennis from Soderling perhaps overall, but Murra, Rafa and Roger at times too.

On the women's side, upsets have been the order of the week. Venus, OUT, Clisters, OUT. Only Serena and that crazy chick remain among the big names. Serena looks awesome, and she gets some total no name in the semis.

Today:
Fed v Berdych: Berdy was one of those picked as the "next Fed" a few years back. Huge talent, huge big hitting game. Never lived up to his potential, lots of mental breakdowns. Until this year. He beat Fed in a thriller a couple months ago, and made the semis of the French. So this should be a great match.

Djokovic vs Lu: Well, who knows?

Murray vs Tsonga: the defensive master against an all out offense machine. If Tsonga has his best day, he wins. If he is less than perfect, he loses.

Nadal vs Soderling: A similar dynamic to Murray/Tsonga. If Soderling makes his serves and hits his lines he has the power to blow Nadal off the court, and the height to be untroubled by Nadal's high bounces. Look for Nadal to be more aggressive than usual, going for winners, to counter Sod's power. They also have a great history: in '07 they fought a brilliant 5 setter here that included a Sod mimmicking of Nadal's ass picking and time wasting. It was not well received. Then last year, The Sod knocked Rafa out of the French, for Rafa's first ever loss there. This year, Rafa demolished Soda Pop in the French Finals.
This is your match of the day!

Great tournament, this Wimbledon. Great tennis-ball game.

Although we just had the men's and women's semis, I want to talk briefly about the quarters.
First, Serena watched her sister piss away match points and her shot, flaming out in a blaze of shit tennis. In her own quarterfinal, Serena looked dead, down a set and 4-0. The vultures circled. Her leg was all taped up, her back seemed completely immobile. But she made a decision. She was going to win. She won 5 straight games, took the tiebreak, and, with minimal movement, took the deciding set.

Next came TMF against Davydenko. From the first shot, Davydenko was dominant. It wasn't that Fed looked bad- he had no air to breathe. Davydenko took all his time away, had answers for all his shots. Other than the legendary French Open final against Rafa, Fed has never been dominated like this. Down a set (two breaks), and then quickly down a break in the second, it looked like a match where one couldn't even imagine Fed coming back- there was just no time and space for him to play his game. Then Fed again faced break points to go down a second break. Fed fought hard, forced Davydenko into a rally and Kolya muffed a shot into the net. It was into that tiny crack that Federer jammed his racquet and heaved on it like a lever. Federer found a way to raise his game. On his next service game, he faced 0-40. He served five first serves (3 aces) and took the game. That is not a Davydenko collapse, that is a Fed aliya (aliya is the Hebrew word for rising up). Facing that, Davydenko did collapse, and Fed soared higher. He won that set, then took the third 6-0.
In that span, Fed went from being dominated to winning an incredible 13 STRAIGHT GAMES! He took the match in a fiercely contested fourth set, 7-5.

What happened there? What we saw is what separates Fed and other real champions from the mass of great players: under the heaviest pressure, almost every player on tour tends to play worse. Fed plays better. And given the chance to reverse that pressure, we see the stark difference as the opponent usually fails to do the same. Facing a foe Fed could not beat at the level he was playing, Fed patiently waited for an opening and the took his game to another level. Davydenko, facing the same, collapsed.

Serena and Fed have not dominated their eras solely because of skill, but will. They hate to lose more than their opponents, and they have the strength of will to stop it from happening.