Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

That is to say, a new tennis season is upon us, rising in the East, and where the year to unfold may already be read in the sky.

The first tourneys are under way, scattered across Asia Pacific as the players swarm hemispherically 'round Australia in preparation for the year's first Slam in a week's time. ANd those tourneys are telling us what to expect for this year.

If I had written a week ago of the prospects for this year, I would have rated Nole as the likely year end #1 with Roger and Rafa each contending at the Slams. I put Roger back up with Rafa because he tore through the nobody-cares fall calendar, including demolishing Rafa in the World Tour FInals.

But I also would have said I see room for breakthroughs this year, and I would have pegged Tsonga, Murray, and Del Potro as the most likely. I also would have bet on Milos Raonic and Alex Dolgopolov breaking into the top ten.

Fate has reached out through this first week of tennis to confirm her intentions: At the Doha tournament, Gael Monfils took out Rafa, and then Jo Wilfred Tsonga took out Gael in the finals.
In Brisbane, Andy Murray knocked out Dolgoplov in the final. And in Chennai, Milos Raonic took out top tenners Almagro and Tipsarevic en route to the title.

Expect it: big years are coming for Tsonga and Murray in terms of contending at Slams, and from Milos and Dolgopolov in terms of breaking into the top tier.

As for The Great Oz: I just don't know. I think perhaps the only player who can take out Djokovic there might be Murray- the only man who really doesn't fear him. I would say, I expect Nole, Murray or Roger to win. Would not be shocked to see Rafa or Tsonga in the finals, but don't think they'll win.

Of course, other players to keep an eye on, as always, include David Ferrer (the invisible man), Thomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and youngster Australian Bernard Tomic. And yesterday Del potro gave an interview claiming he is at his peak preparation and condition for the Slam this year. So lots of cool stuff going on.
Don't look behind the curtain.

UPDATE: Murray hired Lendl as his new coach. How cool is that? Their games are nothing alike, but they have one thing in common: each broke into Slam finals and stalled, losing several in a row. Lendl went on to win MANY (7?) as a late bloomer. Can Andy?

UPDATER: Murray is often called the best player never to have won a Slam. I always thought that couldn't be true. Surely in the history of tennis there were better players that had never won Slams. Nope. By just about any standard I could think to check, mainly, number of tournaments won, number of Masters won, number of Slam finals and semis, Murray is easily the best player never to have won a Slam. Cedric Pioline, David Nalbandian and Todd Martin won far fewer tournaments, for example. Vitas Gerulitis won a Slam (who knew?) Give that Murray has an amazing record in finals outside of Slams, and a pretty good record against the Big Three outside of Slams, you have to think he's going to win one.

Jumping on the Vagabond Zeitgeist Bandwagon, here's SI's look at best retired non-Slam winners:

Out of their picks, Marcelos Rios, who was briefly #1, comes closest to Murray's achievements, but Murray still wins out by most metrics other than ranking.

BLOGGER'S ADDENDUM: With his trophy this week, Milos moves up to world 25. This will (I think) make him the first ever Canadian man seeded at a Grand Slam singles tournament.

The Headliners
This year began with 3 storylines worth watching, but after 3 of the 4 majors have played out, two fizzled and one grew to epic proportions. The diminishing stories were the return of Del Potro and emergence of young guns, Raonic, Harrison, Tomic and Dolgopolov.

But the story of the year, without a doubt, is Novak Djokovic who has turned in one of the great seasons in tennis history, complete with 5 straight championship match wins over Rafael Nadal, on hard courts, clay and grass. Nole has only lost twice this season, once in possibly the match of the year in the French semis to Federer, and once last week when he quit in the Cincinnati finals to Andy Murray citing a shoulder injury.
He is, possibly flirting with Johnny Mac's 1984 campaign, which went something like 80-odd wins and 3 or 4 losses (sorry, no easy internet connection at the cottage, so stats are from memory). If he wins the USO, compiling 3 Slams in a season, it will be up there in the list of great seasons in post-Laver times (Fed had 3 Slams, a 4th Slam Final, a Year End Championship and about 5 losses in 2005 or 2006. Fed has actually hit the 3 Slams and a Final mark 3 times! Last year, Rafa won 3 Slams but had somewhere close to 10 losses).

By the way, I always liked Novak and found his antics pretty funny. The more exposure that he gets, the more sick I am of seeing him take his shirt off and flex.

So…
your favourite for this years US Open, hands down, Novak Djokovic.

Then you have Rafa. What to make of the bumpicking baseliner? After shocking clay court beatdowns to Novak in two straight Masters tournaments in the spring, he resumed his traditional place in the French Open's champion spot, only to lose convincingly to Novak at WImbledon. THere is no doubt Novak is in Rafa's head much as Rafa has been for so long in Federer's (one interesting difference: Rafa admits it, Fed continues to pretend not to notice).

Rafa has had a shitty hardcore summer so far. But he's clearly changing his tactics again, looking to regain the aggressive, offensive form that he took to the USOpen trophy last year. Its so hard to count Rafa out in a Slam, but right now he does not go into this tournament with the other players shaking as he has for the last few years. That alone will cost him a few points here and there.

Newly demoted #3 Roger Federer keeps telling everyone he's happy with his game, and after over a year with his new coach (former Sampras aide) Paul Anacone, he does look good. Except when he doesn't. And it only has to happen once a tournament. As long as Federer doesn't run into someone having a career day, he's winning, but he seems to be running into players-at-their-best a LOT lately. Like to Soderling at the French last year, then Berdych at Wimbledon. After a very tight French Open loss to Rafa this year, Fed lost to a sizzling Tsonga at Wimbledon, then AGAIN to Tsonga playing one of the greatest matches I've ever seen in Montreal, and AGAIN to a hot Berdych in Cincinnati. There are seven matches to a Slam trophy and it seems to me that somewhere in there Fed will face someone having a great day. Fed is having a hard time finding that level.

Still, he's doing better than Andy Murray. After getting blown out in Novak's Oz coming out party, Murray has been showing up at the Slams, making decent semifinals runs, then disappearing for all other tournaments. We were ready to forget about MAndy altogether until… he won Cincinnati, knocking out the unbeatable Novak in the finals just last week.

The Pretenders

There are three or four players right now that could be outsider shots at a USO title, or at least finals: Jo-Willy Tsonga, who is finally getting some consistent health and showing that when he's on, he can match up with anyone in the world. He has a flat out beautiful game, his victory over Fed at Wimbledon was stellar, but his performance in Montreal was just magic.

Then there's DelPotro. DelPotro won the 2009 USOpen, beating both Rafa and Fed, then took a year off with wrist problems. His return this year was a terrific story, a constantly upwards trajectory, beating several top tenners convincingly, then taking a set off the (then undefeated in 2011) Novak at the French and fighting Rafa to what was essentially a draw at Wimbledon (losing out by the barest of margins in tiebreaks). Most of the tennis world expected the summer hardcourts to be where he'd take the next step, alas, its been a step backwards. He's had a few straight lacklustre losses, not great prep for New York. But he is a champion, and one with more effortless power and natural offense than anyone on tour.

Our third dark horse is Mardy Fish. The stoner underachiever from the Fed-Roddick generation finally got off the munchies, dropped about twenty pounds, and rose for the first time into the top ten. This summer, he's been playing the best tennis of his life. He's never made it past a Slam quarters, but he's never played like this before. His serve is lights out and he may be the best volleyer on tour right now.

If I were to force one more contender out it would be Berdych, who has shown some signs of life this summer after a major let down following last years Wimbledon finals.

The Draw and Matches

Semifinals line up as Novak v Fed and Murray v Rafa. Remember that Fed knocked Novak out of the French, and Murray has twice beaten Rafa at hardcourt Slams.

Fed has by far the toughest draw overall, Rafa's is a cakewalk.

Quarterfinals line up as
Novak vs Berdych
Fed vs Tsonga or Fish
Rafa vs David Ferrer
Murray vs Robin Soderling.

Great match-ups, real and potential:
First round:
Ryan Harrison, the very promising young American against the formerly very promising young Croat Marin Cilic.
Nikolay Davydenko vs recent Rafa-slayer Ivan Dodig
Grigor Dmitrov vs Gael Monfils
Mikhail Youzhny vs Ernest "Hooker Lover" Gulbis

After that, we look forward to:
Federer vs Brazillian Boy Ball Basher Bellucci in the 2nd rnd
Australia's Future Top Tenner Bernard Tomic vs American Future Top Tenner Harrison in the 2nd
Gilles Simon vs Del Potro (3rd)
Murray vs The Other Swiss Stan Wawrinka in the 3rd
Gasquet vs Dolgopolov in the 3rd

Then we get some doozies the best of the 4th round include:
Djokovic/Gasquet
Berdych/Monfils
Tsonga/ FIsh (MATCH OF THE FIRST WEEK!)
Soderling/DelPotro
Wawrinka/Murray
Ernest Gulbis or Jurgen Melzer vs Rafa in the 4th

For whats its worth: I have Tsonga over Fish, and Fed over Tsonga.
I have DelPo over Simon, SOderling, Murray and Rafa. Crazy, no? Yeah, I'm nuts that way.
I have Fed over Nole, and a Fed/DelPotro 2009 rematch.

WHAT SAY YOU??

The Women:
Kim Clijsters is out with an injury. Everybody else sucks except Serena Williams. Caroline "I Can't Believe She's #1" Wozniaki has been playing awful. Maria Sharapova has been alright, but she's got a bad shoulder and bad serve that will be murdered if she faces Serena. Serena is ranked, like 30th, since her injury layoff, but that is just bad news for the upper seeds who have to face her early.

Lets tennis!

To all those lamenting the new Novak/Rafa dominance, and the fear of a tennis landscape devoid of creativity, all-court play, and offense, I say fear not! For each zig has within itself the seeds of its own zag, as sure as Borg gave way to McEnroe who gave way to Lendl and Wilander who gave way to Becker, Edberg and Sampras...

I've heard the baseliner lament over and over, and it never sticks. But if you're impatient next time Rafa and Novak are locked in a 40-stroke rally, check out some of this action, featuring three of the greatest serve and volleyers of all time. Its really a lost art right now; we always hear that serve and volleyers can't survive in today's slowed down surfaces, but I don't buy it. First of all, the racquet and strings today generate so much power that it more than compensates for a slower Wimbledon. Secondly, just look at these guys! No one today can volley anywhere near this level. Even Fed, the best volleyer in the top 20, or Rafa who would probably be second, have nowhere near the skills of these guys who pull off incredibly aggressive, deep pin-point shots against amazing pressure.

Enjoy! French Open preview coming soon!

When I was a kid, I remember there was a Superman clone bad- guy who was going to fight superman. And the cover of the comic said something about What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?
That's one of the toughest questions I've ever grappled with.
And practical.
Because it came to pass that the man who couldn't lose met on clay against the one and only Clay Monster. Novak had a 30 match win streak on the line, including an Australian Open and the first two hardcourt masters. He'd beaten Federer and Rafa multiple times during the streak. But that was on hard court. This was in Madrid, on clay, in Rafael Nadal's backyard. Not literally his backyard though.
Rafa had established his bona fides as the greatest clay courter in the eyes of most. Better than Borg, Lendl, or any others. He hadn't lost once last season, cleaning up at the 3 Masters Events, French Open. His streak had continued, with a win at the Monte Carlo Masters, which Nole had sat out.
So here was Nole's 2011 undefeated streak on the line against a man who hadn't lost on clay in two years.

The Reign of the Clay Monster is over.

NOvak won more definitively than he had beaten Rafa in the recent Indian Wells and Key Biscayne finals (that makes 3 straight Masters finals between these two- bit of a rivalry?). On the slow clay, the best returner in the game was all over Rafa's serve. Rafa had no answers for Novak. He out Rafa'd Rafa, running, grinding, and waiting for opportunities.

This clip shows the shot, maybe the point of the match. Rafa wins this, but you can see the feel of the relationship.

Then there's this version, with my new guest commentator:

Dig it.
Now, not to forget about some scrub named Federer he is pretty hot on clay right now too. He took apart Soderling in the quarters, and took a set off Rafa in the semis. He played high risk tennis, but was just a tad too inconsistent and lost in a close 3rd set.

So now the last of the clay Masters before Roland Garros. Rome. Again, Fed lands on Rafa's side, and they both face some tough competition. Nole and Murray or on the other side, each with cakewalks (well, maybe not, Nole gets Soderling next round). So Nole, who now has the best start to a season since MacEnroe's 42 win start to 1984, and he looks to pocket another couple before the finals. Fed demolished Tsonga yesterday, and draws Gasquet today, before possibly Berdych Friday, and Rafa Saturday.

If Nole takes this title, we have a new favourite for the French. Even if he falls, this clay season has gotten a lot more interesting, and Nole's case as the true #1 is looking really good.

Juan Martin Del Potro vs World #4 Robin Soderling

Key Biscayne, 3rd Round

This is a great match-up of two full out ball smashers. Not only will this match tell us how far Juan Martin Del Potro has really progressed in his comeback, if he wins this he automatically becomes a Slam contender in the Universal Tennis Consciousness. It is also really a battle for the position of #1 Big Man in the sport.

Expect big shots and short rallies. Get your popcorn!
UPDATE!
That sound you heard around 6:40 this evening was the rest of the tour pooping themselves over DelPo's total demolition of the world #4, and beltholder as the tour's biggest hitter. Till today.
DelPotro looked AWESOME today. So if he can tear apart the world #4, what does that make the man who was ranked in the 400's just months ago? We may find out, as DelPotro is one Mardy Fish away from a meeting with the hottest player on tour, the undefeated in 2011 Novak Djokovic.