Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

Many fans had given up on Andy Murray. The gifted player had shown time and again he had the game to disrupt tennis’ royalty, but he had as often demonstrated an inability to bring all that game, and the right attitude, to bear at the biggest moments.

But he was getting closer: he played brilliantly in a losing effort to Federer at Wimbledon last month, though even then he’d only had to face one, not two giants.

At the Olympics he faced two giants and felled them both, world #2 and recent world dominator NOvak Djokovic first in the semis, and Roger Federer in the finals.

Against Federer, Murray touched perfection. His game, his fitness, his attitude, his tactics, all peaked, all worked together. Federer was helpless in this match.

To start, Federer showed his own unmatchable form with several jaw dropping groundstrokes in the first games. Murray kept pace, and the two challenged each other with deuces and break points piling up in the first several games. Then Murray raised his game and it was Federer who cracked.

For the next 2 and a half sets, Murray played the match of his life. Federer did not rise to the challenge this time. He did not play badly; his effort would have been enough against any player outside the top ten, possibly a few of the weaker top tenners. But it was nowhere near enough for Andy Murray.

Critics have always wondered what Andy Murray could do with more aggressive tactics (as against Nadal in the Australian Open semifinal 2010). For himself he has bristled at the suggestion, often insisting he knows his game best and that he trusts his defense first. All that changed this month, first at Wimbledon, now here. At Olympian Wimbledon. The first match gave Murray the confidence that when he plays offensive minded tennis, good things happen. This Olympic Gold will sear in his mind that when he plays this way, he is more than a great player, he is a true contender for the best in the world.

This match, if it changes Andy’s attitude towards his own weapons, could change the power structure of tennis.

Federer is not going away. He still has the best season so far. He is a silver medalist and Wimbledon champ.

Novak will not go away, and I assure fans and haters, Rafa will come back with force and surprises. But now Murray may be an equal, and Juan Martin Del Potro has his fingers over the pedestal too.

The next question is, just how much can Andy Murray achieve with belief? Can he knock the others off that perch, or will he share it?

We’ve waited a long time for a more open game, as one dominant rivalry gave way to another. This year, the Trivalry became more than hype as Federer proved himself again. With his Double WImbledon success, Murray has to be given equal respect in the conversation.

The second of the Slams is getting into the business end.

Aleksandra Wozniak and Another Game For Milos have made the third rounds, and Nestor and Myrni are playing their second round match today. If they win (and they're #1 seeds), would it be the first time Canadians have made the third round in three draws of a Slam? Yesterday was the first Maple Syrup Summit: AGFMilos against former Ottawan Jesse Levine. Milos won despite Levine's impeccable training while an Ottawa youth, supposedly inspired by the Gatineau Ninja community.

Wozniak gets world #1 Victoria Azarenka, so she's got a tough ask, but Milos has a very winnable match against Juan Monaco, the 13th seed. On paper Club Monaco is ahead of AGFMilos, but Raonic has shown much higher level competition against the top guys. Monaco is on a roll lately and is a good claycourter, so if Milos wins its a great sign for his progress on his worst surface. Then he should have it easy: Rafa. AGFMilos is Rafa's challenge in his draw, but its kind of a fantasy. Milos challenged Fed on the super fast blue clay of Madrid, but he's a bit shy of Rafa's credibility of red-ability. (like that?)

Rafa has a pretty clear run to the finals: possible semi opponents Andy Murray (weak on clay and struggling with back pain) or David "Baby killer" Ferrer (who plays Washington Generals to Rafa's Harlem Globetrotters on clay).

(sidebar: I frequent this tennis blog, Tennis-X. There's a commenter there named Humble Rafa who plays the part of His ROyal Humbleness King Rafa. Its a funny schtick, complete with personal-for-Rafa nicknames for his rival. His nickname for Novak, for example is the Egg Lover, a reference to Nole's supposedly-brief love affair with a Michael Jackson Oxygen Tube. Murray is Mr. Lady Forehand, which I think is pretty funny)

Fed's obstacle is a quarter match against the very hot Thomas Berdych, who really challenged Fed in the Madrid final. Berdych though, furst has to get by Del Potro. (Fed has this week surpassed Jimmy Connors or most match wins in Slam history.

The one who comes out of all that gets world #1, Novak Djokovic.

There are other exciting players left in the last 32: Richard Gasquet, Tsonga, Simon, Wawrinka, Old Man Tommy Haas. Haas, one of the Last of the New Balls Generation (along with Roddick, Fed, Ferrero and Hewitt) gets RIchard Gasquet tomorrow which should be a great match. The truth is, Novak, Rafa and ROger have lifted themselves far from the pack on clay. It would be a shock to see someone other than 2 of these 3 in the finals, and that will very likely be Novak and Rafa. Not to spoil the fun and reveal the ending, but it would be a huge shock for anything else to happen.

But accidents happen!
1997, a nobody Brazilian with GREAT hair, Gustavo Kuerten, came from nowhere and won the French over one of the greatest rosters ever assembled of clay court champs near the top of their game: Muster, Courier, Chang, Kafelnikov, Brugera, Costa, Rios...
Could Milos be this years Guga?

A legend is born:

A bit of context
We came into the clay season with Djokovic and Federer in the ascendancy, and Rafa eclipsed. But the clay again coursed through Rafa's veins, and he stopped the 7 match losing streak to Novak in Monte Carlo. He lost early on the blue ice of Madrid, as did Novak (allowing champ Federer to briefly retake #2), but then Rafa came away with the trophy, again over Novak, in Rome. Novak had beaten Fed in the semis. So Rafa is again the undisputed master of this domain, and Novak has taken a role of True Challenger that Fed could never credibly take himself. Still, accidents happen!
These three though, have proven they are far above the field. Ferrer is always there on clay, but he just can't beat the Big Three. Berdych, who can be hot and cold, and is weak in the head, is the only really credible dark horse.

Back to the tournament.

On the women's side, the most compelling story coming in must have been Serena mowing through the top women in the last month: Sharapova, Wozniacki, Azarenka. She has won the French onec, in 2002, but she was probably one of the favourites going in. And then she lost to a Frenchwoman I've never heard of in the first round, her first first round loss in a slam in her career.

Left are Azarenka, Sharapova, Kvitova, Wozniaki, Na Li and Gorgeous Goerges. Kuznetsova knocked out Radwanska. I like Kuznetsova.
Apparently there's been discussion about the top 3 women sniping at each other on the court and in the media. Keep it up girls!

Today's match of the Day: Del Potro/ Cilic or Simon/ Wawrinka. Tomorrow I'd go with Milos/Monaco or Haas/Gasquet. Also today: a BLOCKBUSTER!! of guys you never heard of: Lukasz Kubot, of Poland, against David Goffin of Belgium. Kubot is the headliner here: ranked 49 in the world, I have heard his name in a few mainstream draws before. Goffin on the other hand, I have literally never seen that name. He's ranked 109, which I suspect is a recent rise, and he's here with the best 32 in the world right now. I admit it, I'm a Goffin-Head!

We're through to the quarters, and we'll have at least two good ones: Federer is, as hoped, facing Juan Martin del Potro. Both are coming in to the match in top form. As is his wont, delPo has been improving with each round as that massive forehand finds its range. Federer is in full flight. He easily stopped Aussie teen Bernard Tomic to put THE END on the Story of the Tournament So Far.
In the other bottom halfer, Rafa faces #7 Thomas Berdych. Berdych ended his last match with a little crybaby episode against Nicolas Almagro for getting pegged at the net. He will be booed, and Rafa will be teed up to defend the Spanish honour. Nevertheless, Berdych has been playing well. He has the game, in theory, to trouble Rafa. I don't want to get my hopes up, because Berdych is a disapointer, but this COULD be a great match.

In the top half we have Djokovic as expected against David Ferrer. And Ferrer just keeps winning matches with no one talking about him. Ferrer won't beat Djokovic. The match will probably be boring, defensive vanilla tennis. But Ferrer will make Djokovic work. Like Limpy Lleyton Hewitt just did in the last round. So when Nole makes the semis, against Murray, he is going to be tired. Terrible game plan for Nole against Hewitt, playing pure defense against the guy who wrote the book on grind tennis. That was some excrutiatingly boring tennis and it
kept Djokovic on a blistering hot court for 3 hours.

Which brings us to the last match. In probably the upset of the tournament, #24 Kei Nishikori has just taken out dark horse contender #6 Jo Wilfred Tsonga in a 5-set barnburner of a match. Kei is one of the up and coming youngsters. While Raonic and Tomic had the Buzz coming in, Kei has been the most successful. Is he still being coached by Brad Gilbert? Murray has had an absolute walk through his draw, so he should get through Kei easily and in great fitness to take on Nole.

I think Fed is likeliest to be knocked off, then Rafa. I should probably give Ferrer more credit, but I just don't see him taking Nole out, I would even pick Kei over Murray first. Anyways, its almost a certainty that we'll have a Murray-Nole semi.

Two things I'd say about this tourney see far: we're seeing for the first time, a really consistent group join the Big Four: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro, Berdych. We can expect to see this group in Slam quarters from here on out, I think, and I wouldn't be shocked if Monfils joins that group.

Secondly, we are seeing the proof that Nishikori, Raonic, Tomic and maybe Dolgopolov are going to be solid second week contenders, giving us our first glimpse at the Heir Apparents to the current dynasty. Along with Del Potro, who is closer to their generation than to Murray-Nole-Rafa-Tsonga...

With the women, the good ones are advancing: Kvitova, Sharapova, Wozniacki, Clijsters and Azarenka. Serena was upset last night by Makarova, playing on an injured ankle. I think this will actually help Serena. She needed to get angry and start working harder to show these ladies who she is. I believe a hard working committed Serena can still beat anyone. But Kvitova and Clijsters certainly can beat her if she's not dedicated enough. Kvitova, Wozniacki and Sharapova are looking dominant, but I really don't like Sharapova's chances because her serve can be punished by the best players. The best match of the quarters will be defending champ Clijsters against Slamless #1 Wozniacki.

Tennis starts at 7 pm, and night matches are usually still on when we wake up. So watch some tennis!

The draw is out and the Happy Slam is upon us, with first round matches starting Sunday 6 pm EST. I think.

Here's what the men's draw looks like:

Defending champ Djokovic and two-time finalist Andy Murray fell into the same half; Rafa and Rog could face each other in a Slam semi for the first time since '05.

That's if they make it that far!

In the Quarters, Djokovic should draw David Ferrer, which should be a tough workout but not an existential threat. Murray on the other hand could face Jo Wilfred Tsonga, and THAT is the showdown of the quarterfinal round. Tsonga is the consensus pick as the non-Big Four contender.

Federer either gets Fish or Del Potro, and whichever it is should be a terrific match. Rafa gets Thomas Berdych, which is in theory a great match-up, but Thomas can never hold his head and game together long.

Rafa has a pillow-lined path to the finals, Andy Murray faces danger at each door.

Here are the matches to watch along the way:

1st round:

*Roddick/ Robin Haase (the talented but mentally weak Haase could knock ROddick off early!)

*Andy Murray/Ryan Harrison (young American Harrison will not win, but he should show some fight. And the two are champion scowlers, so it will be fun if you like grouches)

*Michael Llodra/Ernest Gulbis (neither of these are contenders, but they are ultra-exciting, talented players)

*Bernard Tomic/Fernando Verdasco (Australian Tomic is, after Raonic, the most talked about prospect. He has a weird, slicey, moonbally game like Andy Murray but he can REALLY power the ball after he bores you to sleep. Count on this upset when he takes out the former top-tenner Verdasco!)

OK, the first round is a little sparse, but the 2nd round really picks up. Watch for these:

2nd ROund
*Tommy Haas/Rafa
*Nalbandian/Isner
*Almagro/Dmitrov
*Baghdatis/Wawrinka
*Monfils/Bellucci
*Gasquet/Youzhny
*Roddick/Hewitt (an old boys final!)

3rd ROund
*Milos/Andy Roddick (end of the road for A-Rod, I think)
*Tipsarevic/Gasquet-Youzhny winner
*Andy Murray/Gulbis
*Simon/Nishikori
*Dolgopolov/Tomic-Verdasco winner
*Federer/Tuna Melzer
*Donald Young/Rafa

In the '90's, the Big Girl generation arrived: First The WIlliams Sisters, then Jeniffer Capriatti version II, Clijsters, Davenport. They dominated the WTA for years. For a time, Hingis seemed the rat dodging the elephants.
Less talked about is the arrival of Big Man tennis, which began with Soderling's defeat of Rafa at the French Open in 2009. That same year, Del Potro won the USOpen. Next, Berdych ran off a few wins over Federer and Djokovic, and a 2010 Wimbledon final, and this summer, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga returned to top tier tennis with two of the most impressive, and high level of tennis, wins over Federer.

And that about introduces the current crop of Big Men: Soderling, Tsonga, Del Potro and Berdych. There are other big men, for sure: And Murray, Bernard Tomic, Gael Monfils, Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, Sam Querrey. But they play small man tennis. The Huge Four, play eye-popping, jaw dropping big shots. When they are on form, they are devastating, and have between them the scalps of Federer, Rafa and Nole at various Slams. They are on to varying degrees at varying times. I would rate them like this:
Tsonga and Del Potro are the best, they move better than the others, and have better touch.
Soderling and Berdych also do not play as big as Tsonga and Del Potro. Tsonga and Del Potro go for broke on almost every stroke. They aim to smoke lines and opponents. Soderling and Berdych are slightly more timid. They can keep their Beast locked up for games at a time.
Watch out for the Big Men, they can provide some of the most exciting tennis and biggest upsets. Also, watch for Milos Raonic to join their ranks this year. His backhand is still pretty weak, but his weird quick loop forehand is devastating, and he seems fearless with it. He might also be the best natural net player of this group, and that will be a HUGE weapon with his serve.

This is also the year Milos has become the trendy prospect pick of all the commentators. He and Australian Bernard Tomic (still just 19) are the consensus break-out picks for 2012.