Tennisers of the World, Unite! The topspin blog

We're through to the quarters, and we'll have at least two good ones: Federer is, as hoped, facing Juan Martin del Potro. Both are coming in to the match in top form. As is his wont, delPo has been improving with each round as that massive forehand finds its range. Federer is in full flight. He easily stopped Aussie teen Bernard Tomic to put THE END on the Story of the Tournament So Far.
In the other bottom halfer, Rafa faces #7 Thomas Berdych. Berdych ended his last match with a little crybaby episode against Nicolas Almagro for getting pegged at the net. He will be booed, and Rafa will be teed up to defend the Spanish honour. Nevertheless, Berdych has been playing well. He has the game, in theory, to trouble Rafa. I don't want to get my hopes up, because Berdych is a disapointer, but this COULD be a great match.

In the top half we have Djokovic as expected against David Ferrer. And Ferrer just keeps winning matches with no one talking about him. Ferrer won't beat Djokovic. The match will probably be boring, defensive vanilla tennis. But Ferrer will make Djokovic work. Like Limpy Lleyton Hewitt just did in the last round. So when Nole makes the semis, against Murray, he is going to be tired. Terrible game plan for Nole against Hewitt, playing pure defense against the guy who wrote the book on grind tennis. That was some excrutiatingly boring tennis and it
kept Djokovic on a blistering hot court for 3 hours.

Which brings us to the last match. In probably the upset of the tournament, #24 Kei Nishikori has just taken out dark horse contender #6 Jo Wilfred Tsonga in a 5-set barnburner of a match. Kei is one of the up and coming youngsters. While Raonic and Tomic had the Buzz coming in, Kei has been the most successful. Is he still being coached by Brad Gilbert? Murray has had an absolute walk through his draw, so he should get through Kei easily and in great fitness to take on Nole.

I think Fed is likeliest to be knocked off, then Rafa. I should probably give Ferrer more credit, but I just don't see him taking Nole out, I would even pick Kei over Murray first. Anyways, its almost a certainty that we'll have a Murray-Nole semi.

Two things I'd say about this tourney see far: we're seeing for the first time, a really consistent group join the Big Four: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro, Berdych. We can expect to see this group in Slam quarters from here on out, I think, and I wouldn't be shocked if Monfils joins that group.

Secondly, we are seeing the proof that Nishikori, Raonic, Tomic and maybe Dolgopolov are going to be solid second week contenders, giving us our first glimpse at the Heir Apparents to the current dynasty. Along with Del Potro, who is closer to their generation than to Murray-Nole-Rafa-Tsonga...

With the women, the good ones are advancing: Kvitova, Sharapova, Wozniacki, Clijsters and Azarenka. Serena was upset last night by Makarova, playing on an injured ankle. I think this will actually help Serena. She needed to get angry and start working harder to show these ladies who she is. I believe a hard working committed Serena can still beat anyone. But Kvitova and Clijsters certainly can beat her if she's not dedicated enough. Kvitova, Wozniacki and Sharapova are looking dominant, but I really don't like Sharapova's chances because her serve can be punished by the best players. The best match of the quarters will be defending champ Clijsters against Slamless #1 Wozniacki.

Tennis starts at 7 pm, and night matches are usually still on when we wake up. So watch some tennis!

The draw is out and the Happy Slam is upon us, with first round matches starting Sunday 6 pm EST. I think.

Here's what the men's draw looks like:

Defending champ Djokovic and two-time finalist Andy Murray fell into the same half; Rafa and Rog could face each other in a Slam semi for the first time since '05.

That's if they make it that far!

In the Quarters, Djokovic should draw David Ferrer, which should be a tough workout but not an existential threat. Murray on the other hand could face Jo Wilfred Tsonga, and THAT is the showdown of the quarterfinal round. Tsonga is the consensus pick as the non-Big Four contender.

Federer either gets Fish or Del Potro, and whichever it is should be a terrific match. Rafa gets Thomas Berdych, which is in theory a great match-up, but Thomas can never hold his head and game together long.

Rafa has a pillow-lined path to the finals, Andy Murray faces danger at each door.

Here are the matches to watch along the way:

1st round:

*Roddick/ Robin Haase (the talented but mentally weak Haase could knock ROddick off early!)

*Andy Murray/Ryan Harrison (young American Harrison will not win, but he should show some fight. And the two are champion scowlers, so it will be fun if you like grouches)

*Michael Llodra/Ernest Gulbis (neither of these are contenders, but they are ultra-exciting, talented players)

*Bernard Tomic/Fernando Verdasco (Australian Tomic is, after Raonic, the most talked about prospect. He has a weird, slicey, moonbally game like Andy Murray but he can REALLY power the ball after he bores you to sleep. Count on this upset when he takes out the former top-tenner Verdasco!)

OK, the first round is a little sparse, but the 2nd round really picks up. Watch for these:

2nd ROund
*Tommy Haas/Rafa
*Nalbandian/Isner
*Almagro/Dmitrov
*Baghdatis/Wawrinka
*Monfils/Bellucci
*Gasquet/Youzhny
*Roddick/Hewitt (an old boys final!)

3rd ROund
*Milos/Andy Roddick (end of the road for A-Rod, I think)
*Tipsarevic/Gasquet-Youzhny winner
*Andy Murray/Gulbis
*Simon/Nishikori
*Dolgopolov/Tomic-Verdasco winner
*Federer/Tuna Melzer
*Donald Young/Rafa

The Finals Match
Anyone else wondering about the weird way Murray seemed to resent his box (including dude's mom!), constantly sniping at them, giving nasty looks, and shouting “Shut the F up!”?

There could be a very strange familial relationship/ motivation here that is giving negative pressure to Murray. Everyone always speaks of how the pressure of his country overwhelms him. I think that misses the target. I have a feeling there’s a family dynamic that he is carrying poorly, and that he will need to grow up and shed to play freely.

Just a theory, but there’s something going on there- I’ve never seen a player disrespect his own people like that, certainly not in a Slam final.

On the tennis: Nole was brilliant against Fed and well, hard to say he was brilliant against Murry because he really wasn’t tested. Murray just flat out did not compete, but Djokovic more than held up his side of the bargain.

HISTORY

I believe this is the most important Slam in some years. At the top, we had a no Fed, no Rafa final for the first Grand Slam in 3 years! I do think the Fed-al stranglehold has been broken for good. Rafa may well sweep the clay season, and one of them may well win Wimbledon. But on hardcourts, they will no longer be shoe-ins. For 3 years, every Slam generates excitement among fans that THIS time there are real challengers to the Big Two. And we're always wrong. This AO it seemed like there was no question but that Rafa, winner of three straight Slams, or Fed, winner of 4 of his last 5 tournaments, who walloped Nole and Rafa at the Masters Finals, would win. Not only did neither make the finals, but both Murray and Nole exhibited tennis at this tournament that can rival Rafa or Fed's- if not their best, at least their B+ games.

So there is shifting at the top among the True Slam Contenders. The next level, the Fake Slam Contenders, holds together: Soderling, Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer... but Del Potro has shown he could return to this group- or even skip right over them, very soon- provided his wrist holds up! B
But below that level, we've got some new and exciting names and faces. We will see at least a couple of Raonic, Dolgopolov, Tomic, Nishikori, or Dmitrov breaking into the top twenty over the next few months. The second Post New Balls generation is arrived! Give them a year, and some will break into the Fake Slam Contenders group.

The rankings are out! The rankings are out!
The rankings are out! The rankings are out!

1) Rog and Nole are separated by razor thin margins
2) Same with Soda and Muzza
3) Ferrer is 6, Melzer is 10, Wawrinka to 14, Tsonga to 18, Nalbandian to 19
4) Dolgopolov to 32! We will be seeing a lot more Dolgopolov!
5) Davydenko out of the top 32- no seed protection=dangerous floater for Rafa in particular
6) Nishikori up 12 to 70, Berankis up 22! to 73, Dmitrov up 20 to 86 (all outside Masters main draws still)
7) Milos Raonic up 58 spaces to 94!!
8) Fernando Gonzalez is almost out of the top 100

Next?
We have a quiet couple months, some smaller tournaments where we can watch our newcomers (Raonic has made it through the qualifiers in Johanesburg as we speak), await more results for Del Potro, and catch a glimpse of the stars at their choice backwaters.

Then we hit end of February and March with the two big American hardourt Masters in Indian Wells and Key Biscayne- could be some good tennis there. Key Biscayne is better known as Bacon O'Rourke's tournament.
Then, like Howard Dean, we move into the clay season. The only question is whether anyone can stop Rafa from a sweep. You'd have to guess that last years success is unrepeatable simply because it was so unprecedented and extreme. The next two best clay courters in the world by the way are Federer, Nole, and Ferrer, so our biggest names could be tussling in the Spring.

My hope is that by the French Open, Del Potro, Ranoic and Dolgopolov will all have some wins and credibility under their belts, and Djokovic will show he is up for the Rafa challenge on the dirt.

There are individuals so great that their Nobel Prize acclamations invest the prize itself with weight (e.g. Einstein, Kipling). On the other hands there are winners whose CVs are headlined by the name Nobel (Jimmy Carter).

Just so, their were superheroes whose inclusion in the Justice League created that crime-fighting units stature (eg Batman, Superman) and others for whom their association with the League is really all that connects them to the superhero upper-echelon (eg Elastic Man).

So it is with the Slams. 3 of them have a kind of prestige and magnitude that they create the mythos with which we invest the concept of the Grand Slam. Then there's the Australian Open. Nevertheless, the runty Slam is still a Slam. The roster of players is exhaustive, the gauntlet the same as in Paris, Wimbledon and NY.

TWO CHALLENGERS RISE
It seems to me that for several years now, tennis has been dominated by the 1st Post-New Balls Generation: Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Monfils, Simon, Gasquet, Youzhny. With a couple isolated exceptions, like del potro, no new blood has emerged in several years. The newcomers from the top ten have actually been veterans like Soderling and Berdych who have elevated their games. The rest of the main players are holdovers from the New Balls group: Federer, Roddick, Davydenko, Nalbandian... Nadal is part of the PNBG age-wise, but he came up much sooner.

So it is that this Open represents a turning point in the history of the game, because I think we've seen the breakthrough the 2nd PNBG cohort: Dolgopolov (22), Raonic (20), and Tomic (19). These characters have been on the radar for the last couple years, germinating, or festering, or whatever metaphor you like. Now they'e sprouting. Or something.

Nature has tired of waiting for Nole and Murray to take the mountain top from Nadal and Federer. She has sent new challengers.

Here is what I see: First of all, Milos Raonic will be the greatest Canadian male singles player ever. Bank on it. This guy has top twenty written all over him. Massive first serve- he led the tournament in aces and speed. Massive second servce- he was hitting some at 125 mph! He hits a BOOMING forehand, moves very well and has a SWEET net game. He may turn out to be the most prolific net player among the elite- but I'm getting ahead of myself.
The guy has that big, awkward look of a young man still filling into his frame. Which means he is going to get better coordination and more power. He stays totally calm on court and didn't seem awed by the moment at all. I pick him as the golden boy of this threesome.

Second, Dolgopolov. This guy has been a comer for a few years now- threatening to break out then disappearing. Apparently he has some serious health issues that leave him pretty weak for some tournaments. His dad was a coach, so he is just as comfortable as can be around the court and the tour. He took out Soderling, the #4 player in the world in the quarterfinals and it was awesome. Although I think Raonic will have the best game in the long run, Dolgopolov has the most exciting. I don't remember seeing so many drop-your-jaw WOW! shots since Fed of 05-06. This guy may not have the consistency to get to the top ten, but he is going to be a Nalbandian like danger to the top players. He just simply chewed up the power of maybe the biggest power hitter on tour. It didn't bother him a bit. He has huge variety, lots of spin shots, and some incredible power of his own for a little guy.

Finally, Tomic. The much hyped Aussie. All I've really heard about him is that he's a dickhead. But he's young. Apparently he plays a tricky game, a la Murray. Haven't seen him, so I can't say much.

So, Raonic, Dolgopolov and Tomic: remember these names for 2011, we could be seeing a changing of the guard in the near future!
Update:
I can already hear you protesting Greg Rusedski! Don't talk to me about Greg Rusedski. The fact that he made #4 in the world is proof of what a weak era Sampras dominated. And he was British then.

The Happy Slam!
You HAVE to watch this. This totally made me a fan of Kim.

The Happy Dance
Newcomer Andrea Petkovic has brought a new innovation to the woman's game: the victory dance (known in Australia as the Waltzin Matilda)

Everything else you need to know
As we enter the quarterfinals, here's where we're at:
Murray and Nadal are the two hottest players, and they are set to collide in the semis. Murray should be able to knock Dolgopolov off his cloud, and Nadal will own Ferrer. They both have been demolishing opponents, but Murray's been demolishing QUALITY. Should be an epic match.
On the other side, Federer and Djokovic have some serious work in front of them: tonight Fed draws an extremely impressive new-form Stan Wawrinka (Federer's Olympic gold doubles partner!) while Nole gets Wimbledon finalist and nemesis Thomas Berdych.

OK, what are you waiting for? Go watch some tennis!